Idaho vs. San Jose State
Free Pick: San Jose State -4.5 (-110 odds) - point spreads
Sat October 10th 2009 8:00p
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The Idaho Vandals are off to a 4-1 start and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread, while the San Jose Spartans are 1-3 with their only win coming vs. an outclassed Cal Poly SLO team. And yet, a closer look reveals that San Jose State offers great value here.

You see, the three Spartan losses have come vs. USC, Utah and Stanford, three teams that would have won just as handily if they had played Idaho instead. It then stands to reason that the yardage statistics favor Idaho by a wide margin here, making the Vandals a popular underdog pick among many bettors this week.

Looking at the two San Jose home games, they actually hung in rather nice vs. Utah, covering the big number in a 24-14 defeat. Then, when they finally got a break from the heavyweights here last week, the Spartans outgained Cal Poly by 100 yards. They are now playing a team that we consider their equal at best, an Idaho team that they have beaten each of the last four seasons.

Now the Vandals are improved this season, so we do not mean to discredit their record. But face it, the teams they have beaten are not exactly among the elite teams in the land (New Mexico State, San Diego State, Northern Illinois, Colorado State). The best opponent Idaho faced was Washington, and although they covered the 20-point spread, they did so just barely in a 19-point loss.

We feel that the early season results of these teams has skewed this line in favor of San Jose State, as this number does not appear to tae Strength of Schedule into effect. We believe this line should be closer to -7, so we will gladly go with the value favorite in this spot.

CFB Free Pick: San Jose State -4.5 (-110)