Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Illinois vs. Purdue u119.0 (-110)
Fri March 14 ’08 6:30p
This may seem like a low total at first glance, but the Illinois Fighting Illini are trying to improbably run the table in this tournament, and their best chance of beating the Purdue Boilermakers is to slow this game down to a crawl.

The Illini did go Over in their narrow 64-63 escape vs. Penn State yesterday, but that snapped a string of four consecutive Under for them, and the average combined total score over those four games was just a combined 108.0 points! Not only are the Illini deliberate on offense, but they have been solid defensively this season despite their 14-18 record, limiting their opponents to just 39.6 percent shooting from the floor.

Now naturally, Purdue would like to run all day. However, there is not much the Boilermakers could do if Illinois runs the clock down with every possession. Purdue encountered a couple of other deliberate teams recently in Northwestern and Minnesota, and those games produced 111 and 118 points respectively. Most importantly, Purdue won both of those games, suggesting that they do not terribly mind playing at a slower pace vs. inferior opposition.

That said, Illinois has their work cut out for them to say the least if they hope to pull an upset here. However, at least they will be able to keep this scoring down.

CBB Free Pick: Illinois, Purdue Under 119

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