Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Free NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 -110 odds - point spreads
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Four weeks ago I gave out the Detroit Lions who kept it close enough to come away with an ATS victory; three weeks ago I had the Browns who put 14 on the board and snuck away with the win; two weeks ago I gave the Packers and they absolutely smashed the Browns 31-3; last week I was on the Titans who easily went on to their first victory of the season, 30-13 over Jacksonville.

This week Kansas City travels to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars, and for a number of different reasons I believe that the home team has the advantage in this one: Maurice Jones Drew is a beast.

He ran 80 yards for a TD at the end of the second quarter and added a 79 yard TD run on the first play of the second half in Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee; in total he had eight carries and finished with 177 yards.

David Garrard’s ability to audible out of running plays has been taken away from him this week, and suffice to say we’ll see a heavy dose of Jones Drew for the rest of the season.

Jack Del Rio will be preaching run defense all week as the Titans rushed for 305 yards, 228 by running back Chris Johnson; both were records against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville always plays tough against Kansas City though-5-2 SU its last seven.

On the other side of the field: In seven games, the Chiefs offense has had 92 negative plays. Those are running and passing plays for minus yards, sacks, interceptions, fumbles lost and offensive penalties. When it comes to negative on offense, the Chiefs lead the league.

Pass protection has been non-existent for Matt Cassel’s, and the Chiefs are getting very little out of the passing game. The team is averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, and Kansas City passers have been sacked 26 times.

As the calendar turned to November, the Chiefs were the only team in the NFL without a rushing TD.

Remember, Kansas City is just 2-7 ATS its last nine overall and 1-10 SU its last 11.

Bottom line: Look for Jacksonville to settle down this week in front of the home town crowd and improve to 4-1 ATS against conference opponents this season, as Kansas City falls to a miserable 0-4 ATS vs. conference foes.