Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Free NFL Pick: Houston Texans +3.0 (-110 odds)
Sun December 27th 2009 1:00p
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While the winner of this battle of 7-7 teams in the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins will have just a feint pulse in the playoff hunt pending other results, the loser will be mathematically eliminated.

With all due respect to the great job that Tony Sparano has done in his two years at Miami, we like the chances of the Houston passing tandem of Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson to put up points on what has become a questionable Miami secondary much more here than the odds of the more ball-control oriented Miami offense to match that output.

Besides Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, is there any other quarterback in the NFL that is having a better season than Schaub? All that he has done is pass for nearly 4200 yards while completing 68.6 percent of his passes, averaging an excellent 8.15 yards per attempt while tossing 25 touchdown passes. After watching Vince Young pass for 236 yards under very little pressure vs. the Fish last week, it is scary to think what Schaub can do here.

In fact, Miami is allowing an unacceptable 343.8 passing yards per game for the entire season on a generous 7.7 yards per attempt. Now on the offensive side, the Dolphins do lead the NFL in rushing at 148.1 yards per game, but the Texans run defense has stiffened lately, limiting their last three opponents to just 3.0 yards per carry. Also, Ricky Williams has suddenly become a fumbling machine, yet Miami has no choice to keep him in the game with Ronnie Brow out.

The bottom line here is that Houston is the better team and playing in the Miami sunshine should allow their passing game to flourish, resulting in a Texans victory.

NFL Free Pick: Texans +3 (-110)