Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Free Pick: Wisconsin -3 -110 odds – NCAA point spreads
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Wisconsin is a mere 3-point favorite at home over Michigan State, and this is clearly a soft line with the Spartans coming off back-to-back losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. The Badgers have been dominant at home. The Badgers have won 4 of their last 5 home games vs. Michigan State. After losing to the Spartans 24-25 on the road last year, you can bet this is a big revenge spot for Wisconsin players who have not forgotten that crushing defeat. The Badgers outrushed the Spartans 281-25 in that game, which are numbers that would usually lead to a Wisconsin victory. Expect similar ground numbers in 2009, only this time around it will be enough for Wisconsin to get their payback at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Badgers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Wisconsin is quietly 3-0 and everyone is sleeping on this team. Take Wisconsin and lay the points.

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