Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers u8.5 (-115 betting odds)
Mon August 3 2009 10:10p
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Young Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers continues to be one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball, but although the Money Line is too pricey for our tastes here, we do expect him to key an Under at Dodger Stadium.

Kershaw has now remarkably allowed three earned runs or less in 14 straight starts and in 16 of his last 17 outings, and he allowed only four runs in the other effort. He dominated the Brewers the first time he faced them this year, allowing only one run and two hits in six innings, marking the second time in two career starts vs. Milwaukee that Kershaw has allowed exactly one run. He is catching a Brewers lineup that is batting just .197 vs. lefties the last 10 games.

If you factor in a Dodger bullpen that has a collective 3.31 ERA this season including 2.71 at home, the Brewers should be hard-pressed to exceed three runs tonight. That means that Milwaukee starter Manny Parra only needs to pitch decently for this game to stay Under. Parra has been erratic, but he has shown signs of coming around recently, such as consecutive starts vs. the Cardinals and Reds where he allowed one and zero runs respectively.

Also, pitching in this stadium should help, as games in Dodger Stadium have produced a combined average of just 8.06 runs. Add in the fact that Kershaw has a microscopic 1.75 ERA at home, and you can shave a run or two off of that stadium average here, resulting in a safe Under.

MLB Free Pick: Brewers, Dodgers Under 8.5 (-115)

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