Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Free Pick: Under 53.5 points -110 odds
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We are getting excellent value in this total. Last week, the Saints/Cardinals had a total of 57 and this week the number is at 53 as of Tuesday morning. That is a difference of just four points which is a small decrease considering we are seeing the Vikings sixth ranked defense compared to the Cardinals 20th ranked defense last week. Minnesota’s offense is better than that of Arizona but not by much and certainly not toward the end of the season when Arizona was clicking on all cylinders. The Cardinals were unable to stop the Saints offense as New Orleans put up 45 points but it did mange just 418 total yards which is just a little above what the Saints average during the regular season. I believe the Vikings have an excellent chance of slowing down that offense. Minnesota had the sixth ranked total defense in the NFL last season while allowing 20.8 ppg which was 13th. For some reason, the Vikings stop unit has caught a lot of flack this season for nothing being as strong yet the defense once again finished sixth overall and the scoring defense actually improved, allowing 19.5 ppg which was 10th in the league. The rushing defense dropped from first to second which is nothing. The Vikings completely stopped the Cowboys whose offense is certainly a strong one. Dallas was limited to only three points and just 248 total yards. The Vikings were able to get to quarterback Tony Romo all day long as they recorded six sacks, five from the defensive line. The Saints are similar in that they do not max-protect very often on passing plays and even though Drew Brees was sacked only 20 times, Minnesota once again will have a good shot at simply overpowering that offensive line. New Orleans held the Cardinals to next to nothing as well and that defense, which played so good early on and was scrutinized late in the season, looks like it is back at full force. The injury situation played havoc on the Saints and there were a lot of key players missing time but those players are healthy once again. These two defenses combined have allowed a total of only 39.4 ppg through the 17 games played and while the offenses are obviously much better, the defenses will be the story again. Neither team will want to get into a shootout and I expect Minnesota to establish a strong running game. The Vikings had trouble running against the Cowboys but the New Orleans rushing defense is much weaker as it allowed 4.5 ypc which was tied for 24th in the league. Doing this will keep the Saints offense off the field as much as possible. Minnesota is 9-1 to the ‘Under’ in its last 10 games coming off a double-digit home win while New Orleans is 7-0 to the ‘Under’ in its last seven games after allowing more than 6.0 yppl in its last game. Also, the ‘Under’ is 21-5 in the Vikings last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 3* Under Minnesota Vikings/New Orleans Saints

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