MLB Betting Pick: Atlanta Braves (120)
Tue May 20 ‘08 1:10p - Click Here for MLB Betting Odds
Now there is no question that John Maine of the New York Mets is a much better pitcher than Top Glavine of the Atlanta Braves at this stage of their careers. However, there are other factors pointing us to the Braves as nice home underdogs in this spot.

First of all, Atlanta has been one of the best home teams in baseball so far this season, going 16-5 here for +8.71 units. It is not often that you can catch the Braves as home underdogs either, as they have only been in this role three times this season. Well, they are a perfect 3-0 in those games, with one of the upsets coming over these Mets when they bested Johan Santana at a whopping +146.

Getting back to this game specifically, there is no disputing Maine’s talent, as he is 5-2 with a spiffy 2.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. However, he was not impressive in his first start here in Atlanta this year, when he surrendered four earned runs and 11 baserunners while lasting just four innings of an 11-5 Braves victory. Then again, Maine struggling against the Braves in Atlanta should not be surprising when you consider the Bravos are batting an impressive .309 vs. right-handed pitching at home.

Now Glavine is obviously past his prime, although he has still allowed two earned runs or less in four of his six “real” starts this year. This does not include his seventh outing where he was lifted after just 16 pitches with a strained hamstring. Even is Glavine is in need of early relief here, Atlanta has now moved up to seventh in the Major Leagues with a 3.37 bullpen ERA, making them a play under our Bullpen System that has averaged +97 units the last three years.

We think that all of those factors are enough to offset the Mets’ starting pitching advantage at this price at home for Atlanta.

MLB Free Pick: Braves +120 (Game 1) - Courtesy of LT Profits