Florida Marlins (155) - Click Here for MLB Odds
Wed May 21 ‘08 7:10p
Now it is obviously a difficult task to beat the 9-0 Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks, but we love this line value on the Florida Marlins at home here.

After all, the Marlins are still in first place in the National League East at 25-19, and although they ran into some difficulties on the road in Cincinnati lately, they are still 6-2 in their last eight home games. Sure they have a patchwork starting rotation after Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson, including tonight’s starter Ricky Nolasco, but they have made up for that fact with an excellent bullpen that has a collective 3.36 ERA.

Besides, Nolasco has not been terrible when the Fish have limited innings, as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts while never going beyond six innings. A repeat performance here would be just fine with us, given the quality of the Florida bullpen.

Now, we obviously see no negatives in Webb in this spot, but that would not matter if the Diamondbacks don’t give him any runs. Arizona is averaging just 3.90 runs per game in the last 10 contests (compared to 5.80 runs for Florida), and they are hitting just .220 as a team including a pathetic .179 vs. right-handed pitching over this span.

We look for the D-Backs’ offensive woes to continue here vs. Nolasco and the fine Florida pen, setting up a huge payday at an inflated home price for Marlins backers.

MLB Free Pick: Marlins +155 - Courtesy of LT Profits - Click Here to Buy MLB Picks