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Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox u8.5 (-110) – Monday October 13th ’08 4:35p

Game 1 of this series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox ended in a 2-0 final while Game 2 ended at 9-8. Look for the total output in this game to be much closer to the series opener.

Jon Lester gets the call for the Red Sox, and not only is this cancer survivor a great story, but he is an excellent pitcher by any measure. Lester is now 17-6 overall this year with a sparkling 3.01 ERA combining the regular season and playoffs, and the southpaw has loved pitching at Fenway Park, going 11-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 18 home starts.

Most importantly, Lester is in simply raging current form, as he has allowed just one measly run and 12 hits in 20 innings over his last three starts, including 14 innings without allowing an earned run in his last two outings. He also allowed just two runs in three starts vs. Tampa Bay during the regular season, covering 19.2 innings.

Now, Matt Garza did not pitch well vs. the Chicago White Sox in his lone ALDS start, but we look for improvement today now that his post-season jitters are out of the way. After all, Garza allowed four earned runs or more in nine of his 30 regular season starts, and in eight of those nine occasions, he allowed three earned runs or less in his next start.

Garza also allowed three run or less in three of his four starts vs. Boston this year, and we look for both he and the stellar Rays bullpen to help keep this contest Under the total.

MLB Free Pick: Rays, Red Sox Under 8.5 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits

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