Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors 
Free Pick: Toronto Raptors
April 10th, 2009 8:00PM – Click here for NBA Odds
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The betting marketplace seems to be very concerned about whether Gilbert Arenas is going to play for the Washington Wizards; or Brendan Haywood or Nick Young or Caron Butler or any of the other banged up guys on Ed Tapscott’s roster. These injuries are completely irrelevant to Washington ’s performance, and savvy bettors are ignoring them completely.

The reality is that the Wizards are a team struggling with effort issues right now. In most ‘normal’ games, the Wizards are a bottom feeder team playing out the string, a very easy ‘bet against’ squad. Every once in a while, Washington has something special to play for, like a Barack Obama visit to the Verizon Center or a national TV game against the same Cavaliers team that knocked them out of the playoffs in each of the last three years. In those two games, Washington covered the spread by more than 40 points.

However, in their ‘ordinary’ games, the Wizards couldn’t care less. We’re getting value betting against Washington because the marketplace over-reacting to the injury issues and the outlier performances. That gives us a solid opportunity to confidently bet against Washington here as they travel to Toronto to take on the suddenly resurgent Raptors; winners of six of their last nine. 2* Take Toronto.
 

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