NBA & NCAA College Basketball Picks: Thursday, December 20th
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Elon College +3.5 (-110)
Thursday Dec 20 ‘07 7:00p
The Elon Phoenix are looking to avenge a 66-64 home loss to the Pennsylvania Quakers last season, and we think that they will get their revenge here.
Elon is off to a 5-5 start, and they are a good 5-3 against the spread. Now granted, the Phoenix are 0-4 straight up on the road, but they have played a fairly ambitious road schedule, visiting Virginia Tech, Georgia, Virginia Commonwealth and Chattanooga. That said, they have still managed to go 2-2 ATS away from home, and we feel that Penn represents a drop down in class from those teams. Elon also appears to have a huge edge defensively here, allowing 62.2 points per game on 43.7 percent shooting from the floor.
The Quakers meanwhile are just 3-7 SU and a dismal 1-6 ATS, and they are allowing an alarming 81.5 points per game on 46.6 percent shooting. Sure, Penn has faced some heavyweights such as North Carolina and Villanova, but this team also managed to lose by 15 points to Howard, by 21 points to Loyola-Maryland and by 12 points to Lafayette, so their defensive struggles cannot be blamed entirely on the schedule.
While we understand Penn being a small favorite at home here, this is one case where home-court advantage may not be enough, as we are projecting an outright Elon victory.
Miami Heat -2.0
Thursday Dec 20 ‘07 7:35p
The New Jersey Nets and the Miami Heat have both had some problems to endure this season, and both have struggled to put wins on the board. The Nets have lost 6 of their L/7 SU/ATS, and have problems keeping team chemistry active with Vince Carter limping, and Jason Kidd enduring legal problems, associated with a sexual assault charge. Miami mostly because of injures, have also been very inconsistent , but with Dwyane Wade healthy , they are always a dangerous foe, especially with home court advantage. Tonight , I like the Heat, and back them ,because I feel Wade is finally in top form and ready to take control of this teams destiny. Final notes & Key Trends:Nets are 0-6 ATS against a team with a .400 or less win % on the season. The Nets are 0-9 ATS after game in which their opposition shot at least 10 shots from behind the arc and made half of them. Play on the Heat
Montana @ Cal State Fullerton u155.0
Thursday Dec 20 ‘07 10:00p
I was waiting all morning for the college basketball totals to be posted, interested in a few contests including Montana at Cal State Fullerton. We’ve been cashing some tickets in Big Sky games, and after analyzing this match-up further, the Grizzlies are really in bad shape for this contest tonight at Titan Gym. With the status of leading scorer and rebounder Jordan Hasquet in question (ankle), Montana is likely to be in a world of ‘hurt’ facing the quicker Fullerton players and fast-paced attack of the Titans.
Hasquet led Montana with 26 points and 12 rebounds the last time these two teams played November 30th, a game Fullerton bombed away in running past Montana for a 100-91 road victory. That game sent Montana into their current 4-game slide, and now the Grizzlies must play their third-straight road game since Saturday against a deep Titan’s team hitting their stride and getting healthier. In the last match-up, both teams shot better than 52% from the field, and CSF made 14 shots beyond the arch led by Frank Robinson’s 30 points. Robinson did not play in Monday’s home blowout (99-63) over So. Utah, but he’ll be back in the lineup tonight. Also, All-Big West forward Scott Cutley was just returning to action (broken ankle) the last time these teams played, and is now the force that provided over 15 ppg and 8 rpg last season. But the addition of former Washington State guard Josh Akognon has been huge for the Titans, as he leads the team in scoring (20.9) and free throw shooting (91%) while being the teams top 3-point threat.
If you read the article at missoulian.com about Montana, you’ll see coach Tinkle is going to shuffle his lineup tonight, and the status of Hasquet is in question. Following the previous contest between these teams, coach Tinkle put the Grizzlies through a rigorous week of practice that included defending with actual bricks in their hands. He wanted greater intensity on the defensive end, and the effort paid off despite a last second home loss to Portland 58-57. With the Fullerton embarrassment still on their minds, Montana will likely bring some defensive intensity tonight. However, Montana is still the less talented and athletic team in this match-up, and while coach Tinkle comments that they will use more clock on the offensive end and try to slow tempo, the Grizzlies will find themselves playing from behind tonight and struggling to score and keep up. Notice coach Tinkle mentions some of his players are really struggling offensively, and without a healthy Hasquet, that’s trouble. Montana scoring struggles should make it difficult to reach this total, even if CSF can hit 80 points. Montana will certainly try to use more closck on their offensive possessions. The Grizzlies couldn’t guard and handle the quicker Titan players in the first meeting, and Fullerton was able to win big 100-91. Now Fullerton is back home, healthier, deeper and hitting their stride against a team still in flux and without their top player at full strength. Montana lost to Santa Clara last time out 60-49 in a non-competitive contest, the same Santa Clara team that was blown out by Stanford last night and showed no offensive punch. Montana players get to scatter for Christmas break beginning tomorrow, and they may well find themselves on a ‘fast-break blowout’ tonight at tiny Titan Gym. Play ‘under’ the total