Indiana Pacers vs. New Jersey Nets
Free Pick: New Jersey +3 -110 odds (January 15th 2010)
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The Pacers are laying a short number here and to no surprise at all, the public is absolutely hammering it. It is the most lopsided wager on the whole NBA card as of Friday morning and will likely stay that way considering the line has actually gone the other way. The Pacers enter this game off a win at home against Phoenix and that is certainly helping sway the bettors toward their side. Indiana is not a very good team and most power rankings have the Pacers listed near the bottom of the league including ratings guru Jeff Sagarin who has them ahead of only Minnesota and New Jersey with a ranking of 28th. They are a decent team at home but playing on the road has been a disaster as Indiana is 3-16 away from home this season including nine straight losses. The three wins have come against the Knicks, Nets and Wizards and it will be New Jersey who will be more amped for this game. While the Pacers are bad, the Nets are horrible as no sugarcoating is needed. They are easily the worst team in the NBA with a 3-35 record including just 13-25 ATS yet are in a very favorable spot here. In their last home game against a team with a losing record, Milwaukee, the Nets were getting a point and a half and now they are playing a worse team and getting more points. That obviously does not make number sense and creates value on the home team but no one is paying attention. New Jersey was throttled in that game against the Bucks but it doesn’t matter here as it is on a decent 4-3 ATS run and it is a respectable 3-4 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. I say respectable because the Pacers are 3-8 ATS on the season in road games against teams with a losing record. As mentioned, one of those wins came against the Nets and the Pacers are 2-0 against New Jersey this season including a 16-point win at home a month ago. Interestingly, Indiana was a four-point favorite in that game showing that the venue change has hardly moved the number. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS this season after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games while New Jersey is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The Nets are also a solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of fewer than five points. 3* New Jersey Nets

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