Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
Free Pick: Under 207 Points -110 odds
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After facing each other three times, the Suns and Spurs both really know what each is trying to accomplish offensively. That makes stopping each other much easier in Game 4. San Antonio knows they have to defend the pick and roll much better than they did in Game 3, and this resilient team will do so. Phoenix has to contain the Big 3 and make everyone else try and beat them, and they were very effective in doing so in Game 3 with the exception of Ginobli. Parker and Duncan were virtual non-factors. This 207-point total is the biggest of the series to this point, which gives us solid value on the UNDER.

This play also falls under a system that is 40-10 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) – after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). The Suns are 10-1 to the UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix is 31-16 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 or more points this season. Phoenix has found a way to finally play solid defense this season, and we know that San Antonio can defend. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.

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