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NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Warriors Game 3 Point Spread & Betting Pick: May 10th 2013

San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Game 3 Betting Pick: Golden State -2.5 point spread (May 10th 2013)

How could you not be impressed with the way the Warriors responded in Game 2 after that horrific collapse in Game 1. They now head home for two games with a chance to take a commanding 3-1 advantage. There’s clearly going to be a lot of public money on the Warriors as a small home favorite. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the playoffs and have covered in 11 straight dating back to the regular season. They are an impressive 31-13 at home this year and have clearly looked like the better team.

While I’m not big on backing the public, I think there’s a bit of an overreaction here to the fact that Golden State is favored by a lot of the sharps. There’s really not much of a difference between being a 2.5-point favorite or a 2.5-point underdog.

There was a lot of the same sharp action against the Warriors in their first round series against the Nuggets, when they returned home after a split in Denver as a 1.5-point underdog in Game 3. You can say what you want about the Big 3 of San Antonio, the best player on the floor is Steph Curry and until he shows any signs of slowing down I’m certainly not going to bet against him.

Golden State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. They are also 5-0 ATS when playing on 1 days rest, while the Spurs are a miserable 3-12 ATS over their last 15 games when playing on 1 days rest. BET THE WARRIORS!