Free Pick: East Carolina @ UAB o137.0 (-110 odds)
Wed January 6th 2010 8:00p
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We hate laying double digits, and we would never lay the 18 points or so that the UAB Blazers are favored by over the East Carolina Pirates. However, we do think that this posted total is rather low, considering that UAB could easily score in the 80s tonight.

This may be not apparent by looking at just raw numbers, as the Blazers are averaging 70.9 points per game overall vs. Division I foes while shooting 44.9 percent from the floor. Meanwhile, the East Carolina defense is generously allowing 78.2 points on 44.2 percent shooting, so without looking deeper, one would expect around 74 points from UAB tonight.

However, when we look at the Pomeroy Ratings adjusted for Strength of Schedule, UAB has an offensive efficiency of 1.069 points per possession, while the Pirates defense has been even worse than the raw numbers would indicate, as they have a defensive PPP of 1.048, ranking 240 in the country. Thus we feel that you can safely add 10 points to the raw Blazers projection, especially here at home, which now grades them out at 84 points.

Even if we are less liberal and give UAB 80 points, that would mean East Carolina would only need 58 points or more to push this game Over. Well, the Pirates are averaging 70..6 points overall, and even if we deduct 10 points for facing a stout UAB defense that is allowing 59.6 points per game, that still leaves East Carolina with 60 points.

Now add in the potential garbage points at the end, as the Blazers figure to have around a 20-point lead late, and this low posted Over looks even more enticing.

The bottom line here is that with a normal 40-minute game, we project UAB winning this game something like 80-60, which is already 140 points, and if you factor in about four minutes of garbage time at the end, we actually see that final total increasing a tad.

CBB Free Pick: East Carolina, UAB Over 137 (-110)

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