Kent State vs. Miami Ohio
Free Pick: Kent State +2.5 (-110 odds)
Tue January 12th 2010 7:00p
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While we realize that this game is being played in Oxford, we still feel that the wrong team is favored when the Kent State Golden Flashes visit the Miami-Ohio Redhawks.

The Flashes are off to a nice 10-5 start, and they have already proven they can win on the road by going 4-3 in their true road games. Also, two of those three road losses came at Pittsburgh and Xavier, and while they were not expected to compete against those heavyweights, they still came within one point of covering the spread in each game. Those contests helped prepare Kent for the MAC road, and they subsequently won their MAC road opener at Ohio as four-point underdogs.

The Golden Flashes are a fundamentally sound team that protects the ball well on offense and is good at taking the ball away on defense, a combination that will win many games and will overcome playing on the road. A look at the Pomeroy Ratings further proves our point, as Kent Stare only turns the ball over on 17.7 percent of their offensive possessions, ranking 42 in the country, while their defense is forcing turnovers on 24.3 percent of possessions, ranking 27.

The Redhawks are a dismal 3-11 overall while being outscored in their games vs. Division I opponents by an average of -5.5 points per game. While that should already give some trepidation about laying points with this team, consider also that they have not protected their home court well, going just 2-2 in Oxford while getting outscored by -1.0 point per game.

What really sticks out here when we look at the Pomeroy Ratings though is that the Miami defense only forces turnovers on 17.3 percent of possessions, which ranks 323 out of 347 Division I schools. This makes for a terrible matchup vs. a Kent team that protects the ball so well, meaning that the Golden Flashes can crack the 70s here tonight.

That would be fatal to the hopes of the Redhawks winning this game, as they are only averaging 62.6 points per game and do not figure to exceed that figure by much vs. this Golden Flashes defense. Thus, look for Kent State to go to 2-0 in MAC play.

CBB Free Pick: Kent State +2.5 (-110)