Free Pick: Marshall vs. Troy u157.0 (-110 odds)
Mon December 28th 2009 8:00p
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The Marshall Thundering Herd and Troy Trojans are each averaging an identical 83.0 points per game, but both teams have padded their stats against non-lined opponents, so we look for a lower scoring contest here tonight.

In fact, if we eliminate games vs. Division II opponents, the scoring average for Marshall drops to 76.6 points and the average for Troy drops to 73.5, and that combined average of 150.1 points is already about seven points less than this posted total.

Also, do not underestimate the Marshall defense here, as they have not gotten off to a nice 9-2 start by merely outscoring people. The Thundering Herd are allowing just 68.8 points per game on a mere 40.0 percent shooting from the floor, and even after adjusting for their schedule, the Herd have an excellent defensive effective field goal percentage allowed of 44.3 percent, which ranks in the top 50 in the country according to the Pomeroy Ratings.

Now granted, Troy is a terrible defensive team, but the key here is that their offense may not get out of the 60s vs. an underrated Marshall defense. If we go ahead and give the Trojans 65 points, it would mean that Marshall needs to exceed 92 points for this game not to stay Under.

Well, looking at the home vs. away splits, Marshall is averaging 64.0 points on the road and Troy is allowing 70.0 points at home, so we just do not see Marshall lighting up the scoreboard that much.

All things considered, it appears that this posted total is inflated by the scores these teams put up vs. non-board teams, as we see the total output in the game ending up in the 140s.

CBB Free Pick: Marshall, Troy Under 157 (-110)