NCAA Basketball: Colorado State vs. Air Force Odds & Pick: February 9th 2010
Colorado State vs. Air Force
Free Pick: Under 119.5 (-110 odds)
Tue February 9th 2010 10:00p
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If you are looking for exciting offense, do not expect to find any when the Colorado State Rams visit the Air Force Falcons in a game that may even put insomniacs to sleep, especially those that live on the East Coast given this late start time.
Air Force is not a particularly good shooting team, so in an attempt to hide that fact, they play at an extremely deliberate pace, with the thinking being that their best chance to win any game is to limit the amount of possessions for each team. Thus, their 9-13 record is really better than should be expected considering they average a paltry 59.7 points per game overall, and they actually have a winning 8-5 record at home.
More important though is the fact that the Under is 4-1-1 in their home games that have had posted totals. To give you an idea of just how slow Air Force plays, they average 59.7 possessions per game according to Pomeroy, which ranks 345 out of 347 Division I schools and is more than eight possessions per game less than the national average of 67.8. The only two teams that play at a slower pace than Air Force are Delaware State and Samford.
Now Colorado State is averaging 67.5 points per game overall, but their offense tapers off considerably on the road, where the Rams average just 61.1 points on a poor 39.0 percent shooting. Furthermore, most of that obviously came vs. normal paced teams, so you can probably deduct a couple of points from that road average here given the way Air Force plays.
This may seem like a rather low posted total at fist glance, but we do not see either team getting out of the 50s tonight, making Under the play.
CBB Free Pick: Colorado State, Air Force Under 119.5 (-110)
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