Long Beach State vs. UC Davis
Free Pick: Long Beach State -1 -110 odds
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This game may look like an even match on paper, especially with the near identical conference records, but Long Beach St. is the clear superior team in this matchup. The 49ers were supposed to contend for the Big West Conference championship but it has not been the season they were hoping for. They are 6-7 in the conference but there have been some tight losses that could have gone the other way. All is not lost however. The 49ers trail fourth place UC Davis, tonight’s opponent, by a half-game and third-place CS-Fullerton by one game. Moving up from their current fifth place spot is big as securing either third or fourth place means a first round bye in the upcoming Big West Conference Tournament. Long Beach St. hurt its chances with back-to-back losses against Cal-Santa Barbara and Pacific, the latter coming at home by 22 points. The Long Beach Press-Telegram reported that Long Beach St. players didn’t leave the locker room for 90 minutes following that Pacific game as a team meeting took place to try and turn things around. “I thought it was a good meeting,” head coach Dan Monson said. The 49ers responded with an 11-point win at Idaho during Bracket Buster weekend and while the victory did not help them in the conference situation, it provided an emotional lift as they entered the final two weeks of the regular season. Long Beach St. can build off that win, a win that pushed it to 5-9 on the road this season. Obviously, UC-Davis is in better position for that first round bye as it has a better conference record and is playing this weekend at home but that does mean it is the better team. Three conference wins this season have come by four points or fewer while two of the Aggies overall 11 wins came against non-Division I teams UC-Santa Cruz and Whittier. UC-Davis lost the first meeting this season against the 49ers by 28 points and while that sets up a revenge situation for the home team, I believe it matter little as the only thing that proved was the Long Beach St. is clearly superior. The 49ers outscored the Aggies 48-16 in the paint and I don’t see it being much different here. Long Beach St. comes into this game with a 128 RPI which is certainly nothing special but UC-Davis is far behind with an RPI of 258. That alone shows us a major difference in overall talent. The 49ers have done this by playing an extremely tough schedule as their slate is ranked 84th in the country compared to a schedule rank of 202nd for UC-Davis. A quick look at the Long Beach St. schedule shows that eight of the 11 teams (Notre Dame, Green Bay, West Virginia, Clemson, Texas, Utah State, Kentucky, Duke) have at least 17 wins and five (West Virginia, Texas, Utah State, Kentucky, Duke) have at least 20 wins. Even with this, the 49ers have produced two more wins than the Aggies. UC-Davis is just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games coming off an ATS win while Long Beach St. is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. 3* Long Beach St. 49ers

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