NCAA Tournament Betting: Michigan State vs. Louisville Odds & Picks: March 29th 2009
Michigan State vs. Louisville
Free Pick: Michigan State vs. Louisville u138.0 (-110)
Sun Mar 29th 2009 2:20p – click here for betting odds
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The Louisville Cardinals exploded for 103 points in their rout of the Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16, but we feel that just gives us added value on the Under here in their Elite Eight matchup with the Michigan State Spartans.
After all, while Louisville is obviously capable offensively, the main reason they have gotten to this point is their defense, The Cardinals have allowed just 61.8 points per game on a miniscule 39.4 percent shooting from the floor over the entire year, and according to the Pomeroy Ratings, they are second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing only .833 points per possession.
Also keep in mind that their offensive explosion Friday came vs. a middle-of-the-pack Pac-10 team that is not known for defense, and they will not have as much success running today vs. a defensive-minded Spartans team that is almost as stingy as Louisville.
Michigan State is allowing 63.0 points per game on 41.5 percent shooting, and they held a very good Kansas offense to 62 points Friday. The Spartans are ranked number 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency by Pomeroy, allowing .887 PPP, and they also play great perimeter defense, allowing only a 31.5 percent success rate on three-point attempts.
These are two defensive-minded teams, so we look for the pace of this game to more closely resemble the Michigan State/Kansas matchup on Friday than the game where Louisville ran an outclassed Arizona team off the floor.
College Basketball Free Pick: Michigan State, Louisville Under 138 (-110)