New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
Free NFL Pick: Houston -7.5 -110 NFL odds – point spreads
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For a number of different reasons I believe we’re getting excellent value on the home side:

Sunday’s season finale lacks the buzz last year’s final game packed, for this season the Patriots have already clinched a playoff spot.

The fact this year’s team has already punched its ticket to the playoffs speaks volumes about being good enough to control your own destiny. While this season was far from perfect, the Patriots did finish 8-0 at home, which somewhat gets overshadowed by the fact they’re only 2-5 on the road heading into Sunday’s finale at Houston.

New England is a poor 1-3-1 ATS its last 5 overall and just 2-4-1 ATS its last seven on the road.

The only thing up for grabs is seeding; the Patriots will either be No. 3 or 4 in the AFC. The Cincinnati Bengals will claim whichever seed New England doesn’t get, therefore those two teams won’t play one another in the opening round.

On the other side of the field: This is a must-win game for the the Texanas because they still have playoff hopes. Every available player will be called on to try to defeat the Patriots. It’s no secret that Matt Schaub will look for Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson and TE Joel Dreessen on routes all over the field. He’ll also throw screens to RBs Arian Foster and Ryan Moats.

Dating back to last season the Texans are a powerful 13-6 SU their last 19 at Reliant Stadium.

Bottom line: When taking the above into account, having a second look at the Texans in this situation could be the prudent move; look for HOUSTON to improve to 2-0 ATS this season as a home favorite of 7 1/2 to 10 points and for New England to fall to 1-2 ATS its last three when playing the roll of underdog.

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