New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Free NFL Pick: New England Patriots -5 -110 odds – NFL point spreads
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The Patriots are always a great team to back coming off a loss, and they’ll destroy the Dolphins on the road Sunday after getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football against the Saints last week. The Patriots are 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992. New England is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. The Patriots are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Miami has not looked good since losing Ronnie Brown, the key weapon in their offense. Ricky Williams has done a good job for the Dolphins in his absence, but more pressure has been put on Chad Henne’s shoulders now to make more plays, and he’s simply not ready for it. That was shown last week as he threw 3 interceptions in the fourth quarter of a 14-31 loss at Buffalo, a game in which they led 14-7 entering the final period. Miami’s defense is not the same as it was a year ago, allowing 25.0 points/game this year, including 26.6 points/game at home. The Patriots put up 27 points and 432 yards of total offense in their first meeting with Miami, a 27-17 home win. Tom Brady and this offense will explode for 30 or more Sunday which will be more than enough to cover this spread. Miami is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take New England and lay the points.

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