CLICK HERE FOR NEW ENGLAND VS. MIAMI PICKS

The New England Patriots (14-0, 10-4 ATS) will take one step closer to pro football history on Sunday when they host the Miami Dolphins (1-13 SU, 4-8-2 ATS), who just avoided some dubious NFL history, in an AFC East matchup at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA (artificial turf) kicking off at 4:15 PM ET.

Here are some of the NFL betting trends and stats relative to this matchup:
* MIA has lost 16 of its last 17 games SU
* MIA is 2-3-2 ATS in its last seven road games
* NE has covered 15 of its last 20 games
* NE has covered seven of its last nine home games
* NE has played 15 of its last 20 games OVER the total
* NE has played eight of its last ten home games OVER the total
* NE has won and covered seven of the last 10 meetings
* NE has covered six of the last seven meetings as the home team

Here we get a unique opportunity to combine a game prediction with a little commentary on Bill Parcells and his new job. First of all, the Dolphins are about two feet away from being 0-14 for the season. That because Brian Billick, the coaching “genius,” decides that his team had more of a chance to kick a field goal, win a coin toss, and score first in an overtime period than it did gaining less than a yard against an opponent that had lost 16 straight games. And because Miami is two feet away from being 0-14, they are two feet away from being a 25.5-point underdog in this game. Yes, we will grant that the Patriots have become much less predictable in recent weeks, and certainly didn’t go out of their way to run up the score on the Jets (the elements had something to do with it, obviously). But the “Spygate” game came and went without incident, and now we have “Shula-Gate.” Or at least we do if I can instigate it.

Earlier in the season, Don Shula, who coached the only team since the merger to go through an entire season unbeaten (the ’72 Dolphins), offered the opinion that because of their “cheating,” perhaps an asterisk should be next to the Patriots’ feat in the record books. I realize that in the Barry Bonds era of big-time sports, just as it was when Roger Maris was still in his heyday, people get a little crazy throwing around that asterisk. (*****). So perhaps Shula can be excused if he momentarily forgot that he is the vice-chairman of the Miami Dolphins, who had to play the Patriots again after being thrashed in their own building. Miami owner Wayne Huizenga must have reminded him, because Shula had one of the quickest about-faces of anyone who has ever made a strong, authoritative statement. Will Bill Belichick hold all this against the ‘Fins?

And what about the hiring of Bill Parcells in the position of “vice-president for football operations,” which was curiously timed? Can anyone really figure out the Parcells-Belichick relationship? On the one hand, Belichick was a long-time assistant and Parcells protege of sorts. On the other, he’s the guy who was threatened enough by the presence of Parcells in a position with the Jets that was similar to the one he now holds with the Dolphins that he ran out on the Jets’ head coaching job, seemingly minutes after he accepted it, and ran off to New England. Later, he kind of ripped Parcells in a book he wrote. Strained relations? Maybe. Enough to run up a score? Doubtful.

Parcells is an imposing figure, and he looms over coach Cam Cameron and general manager Randy Mueller. I don’t know that this creates the healthiest atmosphere, since it was known that Huizenga was looking to make some changes, or sell his team. Between the Dolphins celebrating their big win and the arrival of Parcells, I’m not so sure this doesn’t distract this team in its preparation.

Listen – if Miami lost by a margin beyond the spread it wouldn’t necessarily be a major embarrassment. I mean, Cleo Lemon had 315 yards passing against Baltimore, but that was an anomaly. New England has averaged 35 points a game at home. They were up 42-7 AT THE HALF in the previous meeting. But they have to be thinking about things like resting players after the game is decided. Lawrence Maroney (104 rushing yards) became big in the game plan last week, so it would be no surprise to see continued emphasis on the run. They may have some rain in Foxboro that day. The blowouts haven’t been happening for them in these games with huge lines. The Dolphins have lost six games by three points, but their 1972 alumni can’t travel to provide inspiration for EVERY game, can they?

What I think we have are a number of factors that will probably influence the total more than anything. I mean, will Miami even score? Maybe not. And so, we’re moving with “under” 45 points

CLICK HERE FOR MIAMI VS. NEW ENGLAND BETTING ODDS

If you enjoyed this article then you may be interested in:

1. 2007 Miami Dolphins Schedule & Miami Dolphins Picks
2. 2007 New England Patriots Schedule & New England Patriots Picks
3. New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Picks & Odds: December 16th, 2007
4. New England vs. Philadelphia Picks & Odds: Sunday, November 25th, 2007
5. Sunday’s Week 16 NFL Football Picks: December 23rd, 2007