Preview Everyone will be glued to the screen to see the one team that actually has a puncher’s chance at knocking out the New England Patriots. The Pats are quickly becoming a team that can’t stop the run, and can’t run the ball. Those are two things that Pittsburgh has always excelled at. The major concern for the Pittsburgh Steelers betting faithful is that their three losses this season have all come on the road. Can Big Ben and the Steel Curtain derail the momentum train of the New England Patriots as it barrels towards destiny?

Pittsburgh Offense vs. New England Defense
Pittsburgh is one of the best rushing teams in the league, notching 138.3 rushing yards per game behind Fast Willie Parker’s fantastic skill set and quick feet. The offensive line for Pittsburgh establishes their territory throughout the game, making life that much easier for Willie. The front-four for New England has always been study, but they are still allowing 92.8 yards per game on the ground. That is simply not good enough for a defense as supposedly feared as this one. Last week they allowed Baltimore, of all times, to bully their way to 166 rushing yards. Expect similar numbers out of Parker.

With Santonio Holmes likely returning to action this weekend, the Pittsburgh offense can also rely on a steady passing game, which has actually taken center stage away from its feared rushing attack. Big Ben, Hines Ward and Holmes have been punishing secondaries lately and the Steelers are averaging 193.7 passing yards per game. New England gives up 196.8 yards through the air on average, and with the defense so focused on containing Willie Parker, Roethlisberger must take advantage of the few chances that the Patriots secondary gives him.

What I like about this offense the most as how they show up for big games. When they needed big divisional wins against the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, the team averaged 31.0 points per game. The problem, as it has been for the Steelers, is revving the engine against on the road.

New England Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
The other problem is that New England has averaged 39.1 points per game for the season, making them the most efficient offensive machine in the nation. Tom Brady has come under fire lately from the blitz heavy packages Philadelphia and Baltimore threw at home. If the over-the-hill talent of those two teams could apply pressure on Brady, imagine what Pittsburgh can do. Pittsburgh leads the league in defense silencing opponents to 12.9 points per game.

The Steelers are one of the best blitzing teams in the league, and have the best defense in the league by a fair margin. They suffocate opponents on the field with a stiff rushing defense that only gives up 154.0 passing yards, while stifling opponents to only 76.8 rushing yards per game. The latter will not be a huge concern, because the Patriots have had tremendous trouble rushing the ball lately, but the former is a major concern. Hassling Randy Moss of the line of scrimmage and keeping Troy Polamalu deep enough so that Brady can’t go over the top will be imperative to stopping the Patriots.

Of course the biggest problem for the Steelers will be leaving their corners in isolation against Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker, who have both proven to be impossible to cover in man coverage. The Steelers 3-4 defense will send tons of blitzers, but the depth at receiver for the Patriots has to be giving the Steelers betting backers absolute nightmares.

NFL Betting Trends
-Pittsburgh is 4-8-1 in its last 13 games on the road
-Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
-New England is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games
-New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games
-New England is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing Pittsburgh

Final Verdict
As much as I like the way Pittsburgh stacks up in this matchup, there are some scary betting trends leaning the game in New England’s favor. The Patriots have decimated the spread against Pittsburgh in the last 10 games (7-3 ATS against Pittsburgh) and Pittsburgh has only won a single game in their last six matchups.

The pendulum at its highest points to the fact that New England owns Pittsburgh’s number and the Steelers have been atrocious on the road in losing to Arizona, Denver and the Jets. At its lowest the pendulum sits right above the fact that New England only beat Baltimore and Philadelphia by a few points each. Which side of the pendulum do you feel comfortable swinging on?

It’s hard to counter the numbers here, especially with that convincing comeback victory Big Ben threw for against Cleveland. This Pittsburgh offense is well balanced and the defense can swarm Brady to take pressure off of him. As far as the win goes, I’ll give the nod to the chugging destiny train New England is riding. But a two touchdown victory over the Steelers? Don’t bet on it.

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