New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Free Pick: New England -14.5 -110 odds - point spreads
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New England is coming off a dominating performance last Sunday at home in the snow against Tennessee. The question raised is New England really back or is Tennessee just that bad? I think it is a little bit of both but a victory like that can go a long way in restoring confidence to a team that was severely lacking. The Patriots head to London to try and keep that momentum going and even though it is against arguably the worst team in the NFL, they have a bye next week so there will be no chance of a letdown or a lookahead. New England needed that win last week following a brutal loss to Denver in overtime. Following the bye week, the Patriots have two divisional home games sandwiched around a road game at Indianapolis so they cannot afford to slip up here. The Buccaneers came closer to a win again last week at home against Carolina but they lost in the final seconds to drop to 0-6 on the year. For the sixth straight time, they were outgained by the opposition and most importantly, they were outrushed by 143 yards which was the third time this season they have been outgained on the ground by at least that many yards. For the season, Tampa Bay is allowing 171.7 ypg which is second to last in the NFL and that probably is not going to get better here. With the Patriots shorthanded at wide receiver, there could be plenty of opportunities for the running game to get going against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have played the 28th ranked schedule in the NFL so they are not only losing but losing to bad teams including Buffalo and Washington on the road. After the performance last week, the Patriots moved to fourth in the NFL with 404.7 ypg and while the 59 points skewed the points scored, they are averaging 27.2 ppg, sixth in the league and they have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games. To no surprise, all of those games resulted in wins. Quarterback Tom Brady looked really good last week and definitely played his best game of the season. He missed open receivers and left a lot of plays on the field and his big problem was missing those receivers deep. Tampa Bay is allowing 199 ypg through the air which is 11th in the NFL and while that may seem solid, it is an illusion. Teams have not had to pass very much because of either big leads or having too much success running the ball. Teams have thrown against Tampa Bay only 148 times which is third fewest in the league and there are problems with that. The Buccaneers are allowing 8.5 ypa which is the worst in the NFL and that is a truer indication of how the pass defense is performing. Also, they are allowing quarterbacks to post an average passer rating of 101.0 which is third worst in the league so you can bet Brady will be licking his chops and come through with another huge game. The travel time and time difference could have a significant impact on the teams and the Patriots are already at an advantage. They were scheduled to arrive in London on Friday morning, while the Bucs were slated to land Friday night and that 12 hours can make a world of difference. There is one big situation that is favoring New England this weekend. Play on favorites of 6.5 to 15 points that have a bye the following week. This simple yet solid situation is 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) since 2002 with the average score differential being +18.6 ppg. The Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for more than 175 yards last game and hey are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games away from home after allowing fewer than 200 yards last game so have been able to carry that success over. 3* New England Patriots

Matt Fargo had a WINNING NFL Week 6 as he went a SOLID 4-2 ATS (66.7%) with his Premium Reports! He has shown a profit in each of the last three weeks and four of the last five while bringing home +34.9 Units over that stretch! He is releasing a HUGE 10* DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday and his 10* Plays are a NEAR PERFECT 6-1 ATS! The streak is extended in a big way!