Free Pick: New Mexico @ Air Force o45.0 (-110) Betting Odds – Thursday October 23 ’08 8:00p
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The Air Force Falcons will host the New Mexico Lobos tonight at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The two Mountain West foes will do battle coming off of short rest and conference victories. We are going with the over 45 in what will be a ground oriented slug fest.

The Air Force Falcons have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, averaging 300 yards per game on the ground. Despite their ball control style of play, the Falcons frequently take part in games that get over the total. This season, the over is 4-2 when Air Force has played an FBS school. The game total has been at or over 45 in all of their FBS games with the exception of a 23-3 victory at Wyoming (the Cowboys offense would have difficulty scoring on the Little Sisters of the Poor).

New Mexico, like Air Force, tends to keep things on the ground. They sport a 25.9 point per game average and average 223.1 yards per game on the ground. The over is 5-3 this year in Lobos games, the low totals coming against TCU, BYU, and Wyoming. New Mexico had difficulty moving the ball against the stout defenses of TCU and BYU and they blanked Wyoming 24-0.

Both of these teams feature pretty sound defenses but they are not shut down units. The Falcons triple option attack has been clicking really well this season with freshman quarterback Tim Jefferson running things for Troy Calhoun. New Mexico will have difficulty preparing for what Air Force does given the short rest and the Falcons should be able to move the ball on the ground, especially against an occasionally overly aggressive Lobos front. Look for Air Force to throw in some play action as well as New Mexico has been exploited through the air most of the season (240.8 passing yards per game allowed). Conversely, the Lobos will do some scoring of their own on the Falcons. Lobos’ tailback Rodney Ferguson is the Mountain West’s leading rusher, averaging 108.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. He will get his share and so will New Mexico as I look for them to at least hit their season average of 26 per game.

Things to consider: The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these two teams. The Over is 4-2 the last five years when the Lobos played as a road dog coming off a game that went over the total. The Over is 7-3 in the Lobos last 10 games as a road dog in the month of October.

Free Pick: Take the Over 45 -110

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