New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers +13.5 (-110 odds) - NFL point spreads
Sun November 8th 2009 4:05p
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Carolina won for the third time in four games at Atlanta last week and the gameplan was run to perfection. The Panthers have now outgained their last four opponents and they have now outgained three of their four opponents on the road. Most important during this four-game stretch is that they have outrushed their opponents and that is extremely vital for the offense to survive and for the team to win. Carolina won both meetings last season and while the teams have changed, I don’t thin they have changed that much for such a big line swing. Last season in New Orleans, the Panthers were favored by a point and now they are getting around 13 points making it over a two-touchdown swing. That is simply too much. New Orleans is now the favorite in the NFC to represent the conference in the Super Bowl and people are actually talking about the Saints going undefeated. While they have looked great and unbeatable in some spots, they will show some weakness and this could be one of those spots. They are coming off a massive Monday night game where the city went crazy and the team was as fired up as ever. Now in comes a team that is 3-4 on the season and it will be next to impossible for them to get up again. Add to that it is a short week for New Orleans and the situation becomes more difficult. Take the ball out of quarterback Jake Delhomme’s hands and it gives the Panthers an excellent chance to win. In the victory over the Cardinals, Carolina passed it only 15 times while rushing it 44 times for 270 yards (6.1 ypc). In those 15 passes, Delhomme threw a touchdown pass while not tossing an interception. After seven games, it was the first time all season that he did not throw an interception which is certainly no great accomplishment. This was the second time that Carolina limited his passes as three games ago, he threw only 17 times against Tampa Bay as the offense rushed for 267 yards on 48 carries (5.6 ypc). The Saints allowed 161 yards on 24 carries (6.7 ypc) against the Falcons so they are showing they are vulnerable against the run with Sedrick Ellis sitting on the sidelines and that is where he will be again this week. Running the ball is big for the Panthers as that is where they excel and it keeps Drew Brees and the potent Saints offensive attack off the field. The Panthers registered five sacks last week on Kurt Warner and while still a middle of the road team in sacks on the season, they can apply some pressure to Brees as he has gone down 11 times this year. That may seem great but he was sacked only 13 times all of last season so things are not as good. Carolina has been average against the run, allowing 119.5 ypg which is 20th in the league but it has improved immensely. The Panthers have allowed just 90.3 ypg on 3.8 ypc over their last three games. Carolina falls into a great situation as well. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points that are averaging 5.8 or more yppl going up against a team that is allowing between 4.9 and 5.4 yppl. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Panthers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game so they should be able to once again carry that momentum forward. They have also covered eight straight meetings in New Orleans. 3* Carolina Panthers