New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Free NFL Pick: New York -140 -110 NFL odds
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The Giants and the Cowboys have all but given the division championship to the Eagles. The Giants have an outside shot, especially given Dallas’ December woes. This is a 3* graded play on the Giants. A Simulator shows an 73% probability that the Giants will the Giants will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a solid and proven money making system that has gone 30-9 ATS since 2004. Play against home dogs or pick that are an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 PPG facing a good offensive team scoring 23-27 PPG. 45% of these games covered the number by 7 or more points. Giants are an impressive 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are also a sound 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Meanwhile the Redskins are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

OK, sounds like an old story for any team let alone an NFC East team, but the Giants MUST get the running game going in a dominating fashion. Washington is very vulnerable to a pounding running game and the matchups favor the Giants to have big success on the ground. Brandon Jacobs was having great success against the Eagles until that game turned into a shoot out. He has a 90% probability of getting 100 yards against the Redskins. Obviously, if he is pounding the run game between the tackles it will most assuredly open up play action pass plays. It will also allow for slant routes and especially the WR or flanker screen. Based on the matchups, I see the Giants winning BIG.

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