New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Free MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles +160 odds
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3* graded play on Baltimore as they host the Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will pull off the upset. This may be somewhat difficult to see happening, but just take yourself back to Monday’s 7* Titan DOG play on KC as they defeated Seattle and Felix Hernandez 3-1 as +154 dogs. This game shapes up much the same way based on the model projections and summary grading. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-10 making 22.4 units since 2004. Play on home teams in the month of April after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games. Yankees have not been solid investments when facing an weak opponent like Baltimore. Yankees are 41-37 (-30.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a terrible team winning <=38% since 1997. Yankees have suddenly lost 3 of the past 4 while Baltimore won last night at Boston and have scored 13 runs in their past two games. Phil Hughes is off to a strong start, but so is Orioles starter Kevin Millwood. In fact, Millwood is pitching better based on a walk to K ratio. He has allowed just 4 BB while striking out 24 batters in 4 starts spanning 26.7 innings of work. Hughes has struck out 16 batters, but also gave 7 free passes in only 12.3 innings pitched. Oriole players are batting a combined 364 against Hughes in their respective careers. Hughes is just 2-2 with a 7.94 ERA and a 1.941 WHIP in 5 starts against the Orioles. We see the Orioles offense adding to their recent run production and Millwood completing at least 7 innings of work tonight. Take the Orioles.

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