New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Free Pick: Minnesota Twins (125) – Tue July 7th 2009 8:10p
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C.C. Sabathia has been a disappointment for the most part for the New York Yankees, while Scott Bakers has been hot of the Minnesota Twins, making the Twins the call as decided home underdogs tonight.

Sabathia is just 7-5 despite a potent Yankees offense supporting him, and while his 3.85 ERA is acceptable, the Yanks were expecting better when they shelled out millions to sign him in the off season. Speaking of shelled, that is exactly what happened to C.C. in his last start when he surrendered six earned runs on 10 hits while lasting only 5.2 innings vs. the light-hitting Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium.

He now must contend with a Minnesota offense that has surprisingly hit better vs. left-handed pitching (.281) than vs. right-handed pitching (.266) this season. This difference has been even more pronounced at home (.299 vs. LHP, .276 vs. RHP), where the Twins are averaging a very good 5.45 runs per game.

Granted, Baker still sits with a modest 6-6 record and a less than mediocre 4.99 ERA for the season, but that does not give an indication of just how good he has been lately. Baker has now allowed three runs or less in six straight starts and in seven of his last eight outings. Besides, as bad as his record and ERA look, he does have an excellent overall WHIP of 1.14 on the whole year, suggesting that he has been pitching in tough luck.

Finally, Baker allowed exactly one run in each of his two career starts against the Yankees while allowing a grand total of just five hits in 12 innings, and a similar effort should be good enough to top Sabathia at a nice price at home tonight.

MLB Free Pick: Twins +125

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