New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Free Pick: Denver Broncos +3.5 NFL betting odds
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When is Denver going to get some respect? Maybe never as neither the public nor the linesmakers are giving this team any credibility for being 4-0 to start the season. The Broncos are far from a polished undefeated team but it comes down to wins and losses and they have conquered the former even when they are not supposed to. The public is all over the Patriots which is no surprise at all but the line has moved the opposite direction. As of midweek, 83 percent of the marketplace has placed wagers on the Patriots in the close to 10,000 tickets and we have seen the line go down to a field goal. This midweek movement is not uncommon and we will more than likely see this line go up as we approach gametime so waiting on the Broncos is advisable. New England has now covered two straight games so the public bandwagon is hopping back on board which at this point may not be a wise move. With that comes overvalued lines and you’d be mistaken if you thought they weren’t overvalued here. The Broncos defense has had an incredible turnaround from last season. They allowed 374.6 ypg and 28.0 ppg in 2008 which were 29th and 30th in the league respectively. In the first four games of 2009, Denver has allowed 239.8 ypg and 6.5 ppg, 2nd and 1st in the NFL respectively. The Broncos have faced Oakland and Cleveland who certainly are not good on offense but they have also squared off against Cincinnati and Dallas, two very good offenses and have yielded a total of just 17 points. The Patriots offense is coming around as they have scored 27 and 27 points in their last two games but both of those came at home. In their lone road game, they mustered just three field goals against the Jets. The New England offensive line is considered a strength as Tom Brady has been sacked only four times but this is the biggest challenge yet as the Broncos are second in the NFL with 15 sacks. On the other side the Patriots have just eight sacks while Denver has given up only six on the season. The Patriots defensive line has lost a lot and it will be in for a challenge here as well. Broncos new head coach Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for New England from 2006 to 2008 so he definitely has an idea of what the Patriots are going to be bringing. Obviously, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is going to add some wrinkles but if there is one coach who can prepare like no other against New England, it is McDaniels. How about Kyle Orton? Before the season started, everyone was talking about the steal the Bears got in the deal that sent Jay Cutler to Chicago but Orton is more than holding his own. He is the only full time starter to have not thrown an interception ands he is 17-2 at home as a starter for his NFL career for the best winning percentage by a quarterback since the 1970 merger. Denver also falls into a very solid situation that shows how the value is on our side. Play on home teams that are coming off a win as an underdog in a game involving two teams that have a winning percentage greater than .750. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +9.0 ppg. The Broncos are Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog which is strong toward that situation as well. 3* Denver Broncos

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