New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots
NFL Preseason Pick: Under 36 points -110 odds
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When looking at the NFL Preseason, the defenses are usually well ahead of the offenses especially when we are still in the first week of games. That being said, the posted totals reflect this as we tend to see a lot of low numbers on the board and even lower scoring games resulting from them. This week, of the 16 games on the board, 15 have posted over/unders of 34 or less with the only exception being New Orleans and New England having a number anywhere between 35 and 36 depending on the shop.

This is a massive overreaction even though the number is not that much bigger. I say that because it is only slightly higher but that is going to get a lot of square money on the ‘Over’ because of the subtle jump. During the preseason, we all know starters do not play much more than a couple series in the first couple of games with just a couple small exceptions. Looking at these two teams, there is no reason to even chance the starters in playing much.

Even when the starters are in, that does mean an edge for the offense anyway as both defenses have been extremely solid during camp thus far in drills and scrimmages. When we get into the second and third strings, we are going to see an even greater disparity favoring the defenses.

This is a Thursday game and during Tuesday and Wednesday, these teams are going to be practicing together. That gives us an even bigger edge for the defense as this early in the season, it is much easier for a defense to prepare for games like this when there is already interaction taking place between the two teams. It will mark the first time the Patriots will conduct a joint practice session since working with the New York Giants in 2001 and when they played an exhibition game right after, it resulted in a 14-0 game.

The size of this total is just high enough to qualify for a great preseason totals situation as well. Play the ‘Under’ when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the first two weeks of the pre-season. This situation is 74-40 (64.9 percent) to the ‘Under’ over the last 10 seasons. On top of that, close to 40 percent of those 114 games covered the total by at least a touchdown. 3* Under New Orleans Saints/New England Patriots

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