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Carolina is a road favorite against Tampa Bay. Washington is laying a touchdown versus Dallas. Seattle is getting points against Atlanta. Indianapolis is a home underdog to Tennessee. Yep, it’s Week 17 of the NFL season alright.

“They are tough to make,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, about opening numbers for the final week of the regular season. It seems like every year the last week’s numbers are incredibly tough.”

There’s a lot more guessing involved putting out virgin numbers on Sunday night and Monday morning for Week 17.

“It’s very much like preseason,” Seba said. “It’s just a real shot in the dark on some of these matchups. You’re trying to figure out incentive and who’s going to play.”

Some of the numbers the books posted and the ensuing line moves shocked Seba.

The biggest surprise may have been the Panthers a field goal favorite against the NFC South Division champion Buccaneers in Tampa.

The LVSC oddsmakers sent out Buccaneers -4 knowing the game doesn’t mean anything for Tampa Bay because it’s clinched its playoff berth. “If it meant anything to Tampa Bay the line would be -11,” Seba said. “The Bucs are locked into the No. 4 playoff seed.

They are going to be resting players, but it’s ridiculous to make Carolina that kind of favorite. “The Panthers probably are going to be starting Matt Moore again. The Bucs are off a loss to San Francisco and don’t want to limp into the playoffs with another loss.“I might be able to see a line of pick, but not three. No way.”

The Detroit-Green Bay line also surprises Seba.

The Packers, locked into the No. 2 NFC seed, are -3 hosting the Lions. LVSC’s opinion was Green Bay should be -6.“You want to protect the home team a little bit,” Seba said. “These are teams (Carolina, Detroit and Tennessee) on the road and they’re betting them like they are at home. These are extreme moves.

“Yes, the Packers will be resting starters. But they’re still probably going to play, especially having a bye next week. And are Detroit’s starters better than Green Bay’s reserves? I’m not sure, especially when Green Bay is home.”

Those bettors playing the early-week guessing game are banking on Colts coach Tony Dungy giving very little time to Peyton Manning and other key starters. That’s why the Titans are 6 ½-point road favorites against Indianapolis after a few places opened the Colts -3, which was LVSC’s recommendation.

Expect more line movement once Dungy announces how long he’s going to leave his starters in. If Indy’s starters are just going to be in for a series or two, those betting Tennessee early have a good price.“As things come out during the week by the head coaches on who’s going to play and how much, we’re going to see the numbers move quite a bit,” Seba said. “That’s why we’ve recommended to our clients to circle the games and take lower limits until it’s determined who’s playing.”

New England opened -12 against the New York Giants in its quest to become the first team to go 17-0 in the regular season. LVSC’s opener was -13. By early Monday afternoon the Patriots were up to -14 ½ and even 15. “The team that is going to rest players is the Giants because they don’t have a week to rest up,” Seba said. “We were thinking of opening the game 14. But there could be weather concerns. If the weather is OK, I don’t think it’s falling under 14.”

The Falcons, losers of six in a row, have been bet up to -2 ½ at Seattle. The Seahawks have the No. 3 playoff seed. Seattle coach Mike Holmgren played his second-stringers in the second half two years ago in a similar situation at Green Bay and lost by six when his team had sewn up a playoff berth.

“The Seahawks would be -9 or -10 if the game meant something to them,” Seba said.

So LVSC though the best opening line price would be Seattle -3. Obviously those betting early disagree. “So how far down do you move them (the Seahawks)?” Seba asked. In the case of bad teams such as the Panthers and Falcons, the answer is all the way to where they open favorites. Yeah, it looks weird. But Week 17 is a bizarre week. It always has been.

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