NHL Picks: Edmonton Oilers vs. Ottawa Senators Odds: November 29th 2010
Large underdogs always have a shot at cashing in the NHL, as its a league where any team can win on any given night. That said, when a ‘good team’ hosts a ‘bad team,’ unless a goalie absolutely stands on his head and/or there’s some sort of other situational factor involved, more often than not, the home team will come away with the two points. In this case, while the price may seem steep, I feel it could easily be even higher.
The Oilers certainly qualify as a ‘bad’ team, so far this season. They’ve got the fewest points in the Western Conference. They’ve allowed 88 goals already, by far the most the entire league. With their 5-0 loss at Phoenix on 11/23, they’re now 4-16 their last 20 road games, dating back to last season.
In my opinion, the Senators also qualify as a ‘good’ team, at least when they’re playing here at Ottawa. I played on the Sens on Saturday. At the time I noted the following: “…they’ve still gone 5-3 at home over the last month and are above .500 here on the season. Keep in mind that they were 26-15 (26-11-4) here last season…” We can add an extra “W” to those stats now as the Sens came through with an impressive 3-0 victory.
The Sens have been a team that’s been able to take care of bad teams. With Saturday’s win, they’re now a profitable 6-1 (+5.4) against teams with a losing record. Given that they’re a perfect 6-0 against the Oilers since 2006, the current price seems reasonable. Consider laying the wood.