Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh
Free Pick: Notre Dame +7.5 -110 odds - point spreads
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People that saw the final score of the Navy/Notre Dame game saw the Irish losing as big favorites and that is it. People who actually watched the game saw a different story and while Notre Dame did lose, the final score does not come close to telling the true story. The Irish outgained Navy by 108 total yards as they racked up 512 yards of offense while posting 32 first downs. Turnovers and miscues did Notre Dame in however as its give it up three times inside the redzone, once on a fumble, once on an interception and once on fourth down while also missing two field goals. Take away even a couple of those and Notre Dame wins the game and the line against Pittsburgh is a field goal at most. The Panthers have had two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame even though it had a game against Syracuse this past weekend. The Panthers have been working on Notre Dame since the win over South Florida two weeks ago according to some sources and this will be the fourth straight week they have not had to travel, with a bye week included in there, and that is a big benefit. In this series however, I am not too worried about the travel as the last four meetings have been won by the road team including Pittsburgh’s overtime win last season. It was pretty clear that Notre Dame was not fully focused in that Navy game and that was obviously a mistake. Playing a revenge game against a team that is now ranked in the top ten in two polls should get their attention and if it doesn’t, the program is in for a huge fall as Notre Dame is pretty close to once again falling into mediocrity after such huge expectations. The Irish matchup better here than they did against Navy and while the Midshipmen tore trough them for 348 yards rushing, that has been something they have not been able to stop the last three seasons. The Panthers bring in a more conventional running game and one that Notre Dame held in check pretty good last season. On the other side, Jimmy Clausen is still third in the nation in passing efficiency and he had one of his better games last season against the Panthers. Pittsburgh was 35th in passing efficiency defense last season and it is 49th this season so he is quite capable of another big game. Golden Tate, arguable one of the best Notre Dame player names ever, has been solid at receiver as he is third in the nation in receiving ypg, and now that Michael Floyd is back, the Irish have the best receiving duo in the country. Floyd had 10 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown so his time off certainly did not affect him at all. His best game last season came against the Panthers as he hauled in 10 catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Notre Dame falls into a great contrarian situation here. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a double digit home favorite after the first month of the season. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. The logic makes perfect sense as the underdog cannot be that bad in this game if it was just a double-digit favorite last game making this an overadjusted line shift. This also falls into the great system of playing on a team that just looked bad on national television the previous week. Don’t be surprised to see Notre Dame turn the tables on the Panthers this week. 3* Notre Dame Fighting Irish