Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Free Pick: Los Angeles Angels -117 odds
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Good price here with the Angels as a small home favorite over the A’s. Dallas Braden comes into this contest fresh off a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s only human nature for a pitcher coming off such a big feat to have a letdown in his next start. And if Braden’s road outings this season are any indication, chances are he’s going to struggle tonight. Braden is 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.700 WHIP through 2 road starts this season. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 10 innings on the road, and Braden has also yielded 9 earned runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts against Los Angeles. Joe Saunders has experienced solid success vs. Oakland, going 9-4 with a 4.13 ERA lifetime against the A’s.

This play falls under a system that is 31-11 (74%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against road teams (OAKLAND) – poor power team (<=0.9 HR’s/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR’s/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL. Saunders has given up 7 home runs this season, but against this weak A’s line-up I like his chances of keeping the ball in the park en route to an Angels’ victory. Take Los Angeles.

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