Ohio State vs. New Mexico State
Free Pick: New Mexico State +44.5 -110 odds – point spreads
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The New Mexico State Aggies will travel halfway across the country on Saturday afternoon for an early high noon kickoff against the #15 Ohio State Buckeyes. The oddsmakers have hung a huge number in this game, and even though the Aggies have been absolutely atrocious this year, there are plenty of great reasons to believe that they can stick in front of this number.

HC DeWayne Walker knows that his squad has very little chance of winning this game, but it has already pulled outright upsets against New Mexico and Utah State this year as double-digit underdogs. The offense ranks dead last in America, averaging just 254.6 yards per game, but if there’s one thing that the Aggies try to do, it’s establish the running game. Situations like this are key for underdogs of this magnitude, because the fewer possessions that the favored team has, the better chances the pups have of covering. Even though the rush defense for NMSU is pretty lousy as well (197.1 yards per game), the team does rank 28th in the nation against the pass (182.9 yards per game). It’s not like Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor has done much to scare the opposition this season, so if there are going to be quick strikes for the visitors, the points are going to have to come from the defense, the rushing game, or special teams.

The first question that has to be asked when you’re looking at a 40+ point spread is whether or not the favored team really has the ability to score that many points in a game. Last week’s 38-point outburst against Minnesota tied a season-best for the Buckeyes, so it is still very unclear whether or not they have the capacity to cover this number even if they can pitch a shutout. The offense for OSU ranks 101st in the country in passing the football (181.2 yards per game), and only 78th in total yards (353.2 yards per game). It’s not like the Bucks have played nothing but powerhouses either. Sure, USC and Wisconsin both have great defenses, but aside from that, no one that Ohio State has faced this year is even guaranteed to be a bowl team.

There’s another key factor in this game that is often overlooked by sports bettors. Check out the scheduling here for the Buckeyes. Two weeks ago they were beaten by Purdue. Last week, they rebounded from that with the big 38-7 victory over Minnesota. Take a look at who’s on the horizon… That’s right, the trip to Penn State is next week, and HC Jim Tressel has to be far more concerned with the Nittany Lions than he is with the Aggies. Last year in a very similar spot, the Buckeyes only beat Ohio 26-14 as 33.5-point favorites with the USC Trojans up the following week.

The Buckeyes are just 2-4 ATS in their L/6 out-of-conference regular season affairs and just 1-4 ATS in their L/5 games against teams with a losing record. Without a doubt, Ohio State is going to prove to be victorious on Saturday. However, the final score should be much closer than the oddsmakers anticipate. Book it!!!

Play on: New Mexico State Aggies

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