Baseball Picks: May 10th 2013
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Prediction: Miami +130 odds
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Jose Fernandez has superstar potential. He displayed it again this past Saturday throwing seven shutout innings on the road against the Phillies with nine strikeouts.

Contrast this with Dodgers starter Matt Magill, who is a desperate fill-in starter. Magill was shelled in his second big league start this past Saturday giving up five runs on six hits in 1 1/3 innings against the Giants.

Not only do the Marlins have a huge edge in starting pitching, but I also like the backend of their bullpen better. Dodgers closer Brandon League is struggling and could be in danger of being removed as the closer.

The key question here is are the Dodgers good enough at the rest of the spots to overcome their pitching disadvantage? I’d say yes – if the Dodgers were playing much better and were healthy. But they are not on either count.

The Dodgers have lost seven in a row. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in six of those seven defeats. While Miami is last in runs scored, the Dodgers are second from the bottom in that important category.

The Dodgers’ starting middle infield is out, star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez isn’t likely to play due to a sore neck and Carl Crawford is questionable with a hamstring injury.

(Editor’s note: Vegas pro Stephen Nover has his NBA Game of the Month going and his National League Game of the Week. Stephen is 8-4 on his last 12 NBA plays and has won his last four baseball plays. Stephen’s plays can be purchased individually or as a package.)

MLB Picks: May 10th 2013
Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Under 8.5
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This is a 1* comp MLB pick on the “under” between the Cleveland Indians and the Detroit Tigers on Friday night (7:08 EST).

Corey Kluber (2-1, 3.06 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Kluber is coming off his first loss of the year vs. the Twins on Sunday, giving up three runs off five hits with four walks over 5 2/3′s frames of work; he struck out five as well (Kluber was 2-1 with a 4.85 ERA on the road last year). The 27-year old will be opposed by the 28-year old Max Scherzer (4-0, 3.43 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over eight frames in his team’s eventual 17-2 destruction of the Astros on Sunday; he struck out eight and walked two (Scherzer was 7-3 with a 3.51 ERA last season). Scherzer continues to get the job done and throw deep into games and there’s absolutely no reason to believe he won’t again today. Kluber is one to keep your eyes on and has been consistent thus far. Recent performance plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and in this case I believe the table is set for a lower-scoring pitchers-duel. How about you? What do you think?

Baseball Picks: May 9th 2013
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Pick: Braves vs. Giants Over 7.5
The total on this game was set at 7.5 points which would be about right if the Giant’s had any other pitcher in their rotation on the mounts and if the Braves were not averaging 4.9 runs per game in their past seven games. Julio Teheran has 5 starts and a 5.08 ERA on the season. He has allowed 39 hits in just 28.3 innings pitched. Things get even uglier for the Giant’s Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong has posted a 7.20 ERA in 6 starts and has given up 8 home runs and 46 hits in just 35 innings pitched.

The Giant’s have had no problem scoring runs this season. They average 4.4 runs per game and have a .270 batting average when playing at home. They face an Atlanta team that is scoring 4.4 runs per game. Both of these teams have favored the over this season as they have each posted an 18 games going over the total to just 14 games going under. Both of these teams have very capable and dangerous hitters and they are slumming it at the bottom end of their respective pitching rotations. With Teheran and Vogelsong on the mound this game should have no problem going over the total. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Kansas City Royals +104
Jeremy Guthrie has been on fire since coming over from Colorado last season. He’s 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in 6 starts this year, and the Royals are 15-2 in his last 17 starts. Guthrie hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts while pitching 15 2-3 innings. Freddy Garcia hasn’t had much luck against Kansas City. He has a 5.73 ERA against the Royals, and his clubs are 2-9 in his last 11 starts against them. -Jeff Alexander

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -144
Tampa Bay ace David Price has struggled to start the season. He’s pitched well in 4 starts but has been rocked in the other 3. However, I expect a gem from him this evening. He will be lacking no confidence against a club he’s owned. Price is 12-2 (13-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.29 in 15 career starts versus the Blue Jays. Toronto’s R.A. Dickey has really struggled of late. He’s 0-3 with an ERA of 6.63 over his last 3 starts. The Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 Game 4s of a series and 8-0 in Price’s last 8 starts when he gets the ball in the during 4th game of a series. The Rays have won 15 of their last 21 at home versus the Jays. Take Tampa. -Dave Price

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Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs
Point Spread: San Antonio -7.5 Over/Under 204 (May 8th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific. Spurs are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Warriors are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games. Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Spurs last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 overall. Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Wednesday games. Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 vs. NBA Southwest. Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 16-7 in Warriors last 23 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Warriors are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Favorite is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Warriors are 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings in San Antonio.

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Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat
Point Spread: Miami -12.5 Over/Under 186 (May 8th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference. Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games. Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 3-0-2 in Heat last 5 overall. Under is 3-0-2 in Heat last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 4-0-2 in Heat last 6 vs. NBA Central. Over is 4-1-1 in Heat last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 overall. Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 Wednesday games. Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

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Baseball Picks: May 8th 2013
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Under 8.5 -110 odds
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This is a 1* baseball pick on the “under” between the Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night (7:05 EST).

AJ Griffin (3-2, 3.79 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Griffin got back on track in his last outing vs. the Yanks on Friday, holding New York to just six hits over seven frames of work to go along with four K’s and one walk (note that Griffin was 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA on the road last season). Griffin will be opposed by Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.64 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off eight hits with two walks over 6 2/3′s innings of work vs. Minnesota on Friday, striking out five (note that Masterson finished with a very respectable 3.62 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year). After losing eight straight in this series, the Indians have taken the first two games of this four-game set including yesterday’s contest 1-0: “When you pitch you have a chance to win the game,” Indians’ manager Terry Francona said last night. “We didn’t do a whole lot offensively.” Cleveland has won eight of its last nine by allowing an average of 2.3 runs and recording three shutouts in that span; Masterson has a big opportunity to get untracked tonight vs. this struggling Oakland team. After a quick start the A’s have stumbled offensively of late; while they did take two of three from the Yanks over the weekend, they’ve plated 16 total runs while losing four of six since scoring 29 runs during a three-game win streak. I believe the table is set for a classic pitchers duel tonight and look for these two competent starters to battle each other into the latter frames and for this one to fall below the posted number in the end.

Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
MLB Baseball Betting Prediction: Miami +145 odds (May 8th 2013)
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The Marlins have dropped the first two games of this series – not a big surprise when you consider the Padres were priced at -190 and -175 in those two contests.

I think we’ll see a far more evenly-matched affair this afternoon, as Miami looks to avoid the sweep, and turns to its ‘staff ace by default’, Ricky Nolasco.

Nolasco hasn’t been anything special this season, but he certainly hasn’t been awful either. He’s worked at least six innings in five of his seven starts, and has given up more than three earned runs only twice. While he has been tagged for six home runs, he’s managed to limit the damage by limiting the number of free passes handed out (only 10 walks in 41 1/3 innings). Note that Nolasco faced the Padres once last season, right here in San Diego, allowing only five hits and two earned runs over seven innings in a 6-3 Marlins victory.

Jason Marquis will counter for the Padres. After pitching well in his first three starts this season, we’ve seen some considerable regression from Marquis over his last three outings. That’s not to say he’s given up a ton of runs, in fact, he’s allowed only five earned runs in his last two starts, however his walk totals have been creeping up, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio now stands at a miserable 23:19 in 36 innings pitched this season. He hasn’t been a great fit here at Petco Park, posting a 5.64 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work.

After getting outscored 10-1 in the first two games of this series, it’s easy to forget that the Marlins had won back-to-back games heading in, outscoring the Phillies by a combined 16-2 score last Saturday and Sunday. They’ve actually played .500 ball over their last 10 games (5-5).

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The Padres are rolling along nicely right now, but they’re far from invincible here at home, having gone just 9-8 on the season. Look for the Marlins to find a way to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Take Miami (1*).

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Odds: Oklahoma City -2.5 Over/Under 188 (May 7th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Thunder are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Thunder are 45-22-1 ATS in their last 68 games following a ATS loss. Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 10-1-1 in Thunder last 12 vs. NBA Southwest. Under is 9-1-1 in Thunder last 11 games following a ATS loss. Under is 6-1-1 in Thunder last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 13-3-1 in Thunder last 17 home games. Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 Tuesday games. Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 road games. Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 20-6 in Grizzlies last 26 vs. NBA Northwest. Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 overall.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City. Over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Oklahoma City. Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

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Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Odds: New York -6 Over/Under 183 (May 7th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 Conference Semifinals games.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 7-0 in Knicks last 7 games following a ATS loss. Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 home games. Over is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Conference Semifinals games. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic. Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Pacers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New York. Underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.

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Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 -110 odds (May 7th 2013)
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Ryan has 25*Titan plays on both NBA playoff games tonight. This one is the second game between the Thunder and Grizzlies. His comprehensive research features a 92% ATS game situation. Join Ryan now for just $35.00 and get the play + research why this is a near LOCK!

10* graded MLB pick on the ‘OVER’ Oakland-Cleveland in AL MLB action set to start at The simulator shows a high probability that more than 8 runs will be scored in this game. There is also a projection calling for both teams to score four or more runs each. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2007. Play Over the posted total with any AL team where the total is 8 to 8.5 (OAKLAND) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season, where team’s hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season. Indians bullpen has been used a ton this season. Oakland is a solid 14-2 OVER (+12.5 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Moreover, Oakland has posted an impressive 17-2 OVER (+15.4 Units) when facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Cleveland ranks 25th in MLB averaging 8.28 strikeouts per game. They have struckout 9.00 times per game over the last three games and had a horrid 11 strikeouts in their last game. Many times, when the three-game average exceeds the season average, it points to a contrarian projection calling for the next game to see less than the team’s season average. A’s starter Milone has pitched well, but has struggled in road tilts. I feel confident that Cleveland will get to him and have more hits than strikeouts in this game. Take the ‘OVER’