The Reds really made a big deal about the St Louis series and they fell flat on their faces dropping all three games. We’re not sure this team with a very young pitching staff will be able to bounce back quickly. Tonight they face perhaps the Cy Young frontrunner as Josh Johnson takes the hill for Florida. The big man has a 2.81 ERA on the road this year and the Marlins have won both of his career starts against the Reds. In those two games he permitted just 3 earned runs in 13.1 innings. Cincinnati will counter with Edison Volquez who makes his sixth start since coming off the DL. He’s had just two quality starts on the season and his control numbers are alarming. After his initial start against Colorado he has posted a 15 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio in his last five starts. Florida comes into this game having won their last four decisions and they own the superior pitcher. Look for Cincinnati to still feel the effects of the Cardinals series as the Marlins continue their solid recent play.
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5* graded play on Kansas City as they take on the Yankees set to start at 8:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that the Royals can win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 156-177 making 80.7 units since 2004. Play against all favorites with a money line of -150 or more averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season and after a win by 2 runs or less. The Yankees won 4-3 last night in game one of this series against the Royals. Kyle Davies has done his best pitching against the best teams like the Yankees. He has posted a 9-1 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team winning more than 62% of their games in any one season since 1997; 11-4 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 12-6 (+12.2 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents since 1997. Take the Royals.
The Florida Marlins head west from Washington for a weekend series in the Queen City versus the host Cincinnati Reds. The Marlins are 29-27 on the highway this season and 35-44 versus right-handed starters. When facing right-handed starters the Marlins average 4.6 runs per game with a batting average of .254. Florida will send Josh Johnson to the bump knowing they are only 3-6 (-4.6 units) when he takes the hill on the road. Over his last three outings, they are 1-2 and his ERA is 4.35 in those games. Cincinnati is 33-26 in the Queen City and 45-34 facing right-handed starters. Their numbers are better than the Marlins as they average 4.9 runs per game and have a batting average of .275 versus right-handers. Edison Volquez takes the mound for Cincinnati he is 1-0 his last three starts with an ERA of 3.52 and the Reds are 3-0 in those games. Volquez has also proven to be a tough out for the Marlins going 3-0 against them with an ERA of 1.80. We look for the Reds to capture a victory on Friday night in the Queen City.
On Friday the Free MLB Play is on the over in the SF at SD game. Rotation numbers 965/966 at 10:15 eastern. This game fits a nice system here tonight that plays to the over for home teams with a total of 8 or less that are off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs and the opponent is off a home win and scored 4 or less runs. The pitching matchup also suggests an over as J. Sanchez for the Giants has played to the over in 11 of 13 night games and has a 5.06 era over his past 3 starts, going over in his last 4 starts. SD has C. Richard to counter. O ver his last 3 Richard has struggled to a 6.00 era. Look for this one to go over the total tonight. On Friday I have the 2nd Half MLB Goy backed with a 100% syystem that averages 13 runs per game. I also have another MLB Totals system and a week 1 NLFX play. Tursday card swept going 3-0. Big weekend ahead. For the free play go over the total in the SF at SD Game. BOL RV
The suddenly hot Orioles continue their road trip as they take on the Rays in Tampa. Jeremy Guthrie gets the start for Baltimore. He’s 6-11 with a 4.04 ERA in 23 starts this season. On the road, Guthrie has just one win in 11 starts. The righty is 2-7 with a 4.52 ERA in 11 starts against the Rays in his career. Guthrie made two April starts against them and gave up six runs and 16 hits in 13.3 innings of work. Carl Crawford (12-35), BJ Upton (9-26), Ben Zobrist (4-12), Reid Brignac (5-9), Willy Aybar (3-8), and Matt Joyce (2-6) have had success against the Orioles starter. The Baltimore bullpen has an ERA around 4.50 on the road and they have a losing record as well. Tampa Bay is averaging 4.9 runs per game over their last seven games.
Tampa Bay’s James Shields is 2-1 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. The righty has given up 10 runs and 22 hits over his last 18 innings pitched. This includes a terrible outing in Toronto where he gave up eight runs and nine hits in four innings of work. Shields has faced the Orioles twice giving up seven runs and 17 hits in 12.3 innings pitched. Nick Markakis (15-49), Luke Scott (9-27), Adam Jones (10-22), Ty Wigginton (3-6), and Matt Wieters (2-6) all hit Shields well. Baltimore has suddenly discovered an offense as they are hitting .300 over their last eight games, and we expect that continue here so we’ll recommend playing the Over tonight between the Orioles and Rays.
Below are MLB baseball picks for August 12th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free MLB baseball predictions on a daily basis or premium picks from our MLB baseball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +116 (Jeff Alexander)
The Dodgers are just 11-27 in their last 38 meetings in Philadelphia. They have lost 6 of their last 7 road games and four of Kershaw’s last 5 starts. Plus, Kershaw has had no luck against the Phillies. He’s 0-4 lifetime when starting against Philly with an ERA of 7.20. The Phillies are 15-4 in their last 19 overall, 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series and 5-0 in Blanton’s last 5 home starts. Plus, Blanton is 3-1 on the money line in his last 4 starts against the Dodgers. Take the Phillies showing solid value in the home dog role tonight.
Pick: Cleveland Indians -140 (Tom Freese)
Cleveland starter Jeamar Gomez has allowed 5 runs total in his first 3 starts winning all 3 games. The Indians are 28-11 their last 39 home games vs. the Orioles. The Indians are 4-1 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. Baltimore starter Kevin Millwood has lost his last 5 starts. The Orioles are 17-50 their last 67 road games and they are 1-10 in the last 11 road starts made by Millwood. The Birds are 21-59 their last 80 road games vs. righty starters. PLAY ON CLEVELAND (Gomez vs. Millwood)
Pick: San Francisco Giants -175 (Brad Diamond)
Hard pressed to go against RHP Wells of the Cubs, but our boy Matt Cain of SF has won the money for us fairly consistently this baseball season. Sometimes in handicapping, you get attached to the attachment of a class hurler, but here the home standing Giants are coming off a huge win and should be the real deal. The Cubs are just 1-7 last eight road outs, while the Giants are fusing at 24-10 overall. Hurler Matt Cain of the Giants has a solid 2.75 ERA in his last three starts with his club taking 2 of 3 in that stretch. In addition, Cain sports a 1.02 ERA L3 times out. Go with the Giants again on Thursday afternoon.
Pick: Washington Nationals -105 (Robbie Gainous)
The Washington Nationals need a win and look to right-hander Livan Hernandez who is 13-9 versus the Marlins over his career with an ERA of 3.42 in those games. That record includes an 8-3 mark for the Nationals their last eleven versus Florida with Livan on the bump. Hernandez has started twice during the month of August going 1-0 allowing only one earned run in more than seven innings in each of those outings. Washington is 16-5 in Hernandez’s last 21 starts versus teams with a losing record and 10-1 when he takes the hill at home. We will back the home puppy here as the Nationals bounce back from last night’s loss and get a win behind Livan Hernandez on Thursday night.
On Thursday the MLB Free play is on the over in the LA. Dodgers at Philadelphia game. Rotation numbers 911/912 at 7:05 eastern. This game fits a nice totals system that hits right around 70% long term. Both teams are averaging over 5.5 runs the past week. LA has gone over 7 of 10 games on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. Philly has gone over 9 of 12 times in home games when the total is 8 to 8.5. LA has C. Kershaw pitching tonight. In his career he has a 7.20 era vs Philly. The Phillies counter with J. Blanton. In his home starts the Phillies have gone over in 6 of the 8 games. Look for this one to play over the total tonight. On Thursday I have 2 solid MLB plays. One is the MLB Run line Game of the Month. The other a side that wins by over 3 runs per game. I also have a week 1 NFLX system play. For the free play take the over in the Dodgers at Phillies game. RV
Boston has found their offense in Toronto as they’ve scored 17 runs in their first two games against the Blue Jays. The two teams wrap up their series on Thursday afternoon as Toronto sends Brad Mills to the mound for the third time this season. Mills followed up a solid outing against Baltimore with a not so solid effort against Tampa Bay. He gave up five runs and five hits in four innings of work as he lost control of the strike zone. Mills walked four in that effort while striking out only two. Boston is hitting the ball well right now as they look to continue their success against the Blue Jays whom they are hitting over .290 as a team against. Toronto’s bullpen has an ERA of over 4.00 at home this season.
John Lackey has not been too good for the Red Sox lately. He’s 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his last three starts taking losses to the Yankees and Indians. The righty has faced Toronto twice this season giving up 13 runs and 16 hits in 10.7 innings of work. Adam Lind (6-12), Fred Lewis (5-8), and Travis Snider (1-3) have good numbers against Lackey. Toronto has gone Over the total in three of their last four games. Boston’s bullpen has an ERA approaching 5.00 on the road, and since we expect Lackey to struggle here, that makes this game more likely to be a high-scoring slugfest.
Across the board, from the Vegas strip to offshore portals, the Baltimore Ravens opened as 3 point favorites with an over-under of 34. As the week has progressed the deeper and more talented Ravens have climbed to four point chalk with the total holding serve.
While Baltimore is riddled with injuries, especially in the defensive backfield, they are still the deeper and more experienced team. Offensively the Ravens will be without tackle Jared Gaither; and on the stop side of the ball cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Chris Carr are questionable. Free safety Ed Reed (PUP) will not dress and ballyhooed rookie linebacker Sergio Kindle (head) is out.
Depth is key when evaluating preseason contests and quarterback rotations, experience among such, is critical. The Ravens quarterback rotation will see Joe Flacco, Marc Bulger, Troy Smith, and John Beck taking snaps. As well, Baltimore has depth at both running back and at receiver. Mark Clayton, Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth and Derrick Mason will all see action while Ray Rice and Willis McGahee will eventually give way to Le’Ron McClain and Jalen Parmele; all extremely capable and skilled.
The Panthers said goodbye to QB Jake Delhomme, who now plays for the Browns, and defensive end Julius Peppers is rushing the quarterback in the “Black and Blue” division with the Bears. Inexperience is the backdrop in Carolina with QBs Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen, Hunter Cantwell and Tony Pike seeing playing time. Fox and company will focus on execution offensively, so expect to see more handoffs than deep routes. RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will garner the majority of the first half carries with Tyrell Sutton, Dantrell Savage, and Josh Vaughan receiving second half touches.
The offense will be without All World wideout Steve Smith. After Smith the Panthers have little to offer Moore, Cantwell and rookies Clausen and Pike from the receiver position.
Panthers head coach Fox has never focused on winning the X games and the Ravens depth and experience will eventually win out.
Baltimore is 7-0 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1993 and with a glaring skill set differential between the two teams tonight expect the Ravens to outgain Fox’s troupe by more than 100 yards.
5* Play on Baltimore
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Denver went 2-2 ATS in the pre-season in 2009.
The best phrase to describe the Broncos training camp this year would be: “injury plagued”.
In fact they are the most injured team in the NFL right now; the biggest loss is that of star LB Elvis Dumervil; other notable losses include RB’s Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, WR’s Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, S Brian Dawkins and LB’s D.J. Williams and Jarvis Moss; also remember that LT Ryan Clady is out until sometime in September
We should be getting a look at Tim Tebow in this one, especially in short-yardage situations; that means that Denver will be using a three QB system on game days; Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tebow.
Orton will be the No. 1 guy during the regular season, and Tebow should eventually be his successor, but Quinn is expected to be his immediate backup; that’s bad news for Broncos backers in this one as Quinn will see the majority of snaps in Cincinnati.
I believe Denver will once again struggle this season; it started a surprising 6-0, and then lost eight of its final ten down the stretch in 2009.
At the other end of the field: The Bengals went 2-2 ATS in the pre-season in 2009.
I of course had a play on Cincinnati in the “Hall of Fame Game” last week, and it was unable to muster any type of offense except for a meaningless TD at the end of the game.
Dallas picked off three passes and recovered a fumble; Cincinnati also recovered a fumble.
The best thing the Bengals had going for them last week was their defense; Tony Romo led the Cowboys to the Cincinnati 2 yard line, but was held to just a FG.
The Bengals also had five sacks, including two by linebacker Michael Johnson.
Rookie Jordan Shipley ran back a punt 63 yards in the closing moments of the game and Jordan Palmer connected with rookie TE Darius Hill for a 1-yard TD with under a minute remaining.
Bottom line: Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said it best at the end of the ugly and penalty prone 2010 “HOF” Game; “The best thing about it,” Phillips said, “is you see what you did and what you need to improve on.”
That could not ring more true in this case as the Bengals have already had the advantage of playing their first pre-season game and will be able to make key and necessary adjustments to be more productive the second time around; when coupled with the home field advantage factor, you may want to consider a second look at the CINCINNATI BENGALS in this situation.