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North Carolina vs. Maryland Prediction & Point Spread: February 27th 2011

North Carolina vs. Maryland
Prediction: North Carolina -6 -110 point spread – February 27th 2011
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The North Carolina Tar Heels are quietly going under the radar this season. That’s hard to believe for such a storied program, but it’s the truth. UNC is 21-6 this season and they’ve won 8 of their last 9 games overall, with their only loss coming at Duke after they blew a 43-29 haltime lead to lose by six. The Tar Heels are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 12.8 points/game, while Maryland is 4-7 on the road. UNC is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good defensive teams – shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season. UNC is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good teams – outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. North Carolina is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1997. Take the Tar Heels and lay the points. -Black Widow

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NBA Predictions: Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds: February 27th 2011

Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs -9 -110 odds – February 27th 2011
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San Antonio has quietly ripped off 20 straight wins inside the AT&T Center and victory No. 21 isn’t far away.

Memphis enters this game off back-to-back SU and ATS victories over Minnesota and Sacramento. Respect is given to those two performances but taking on a team like the Spurs will be a difficult encore. This is an area where San Antonio has excelled too. According to my NBA database, the Spurs are a respectable 120-88 ATS provided they’re matched up against an opponent that checks in off a blowout win of 10 points or more. In this role battling a foe that enters without rest, San Antonio improves to a solid 32-20 ATS including 29-14 ATS in this role priced as an underdog or a favorite of -11 or less.

In case you haven’t noticed, the Spurs enter this contest off three consecutive pointspread losses. That works in their favor too. When taking the floor off three or more ATS blemishes, San Antonio owns a solid 73-48 ATS record including a stunning 24-9 ATS in this role matched up against a division foe.

As a single digit division road dog, Memphis has struggled posting a weak 29-45-1 ATS mark including just 6-15 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that checks in off two or more straight up wins.

In their quest for a franchise-record 21st straight home win, the Spurs won’t be denied. Take San Antonio. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

College Basketball Picks for February 27th 2011: Three Underdogs To Consider Betting Sunday

College Basketball Picks: February 27th 2011
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Pick: Maryland Terrapins +6.5
Maryland has made a habit of giving UNC fits. The Terrapins have won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 against the Heels, covering the spread in each of those 5 meetings. Plus, Maryland has been a tremendous investment on the road, where it is 13-5 ATS in all lined games the last 2 seasons. It is also worth mentioning that the Terrapins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the points here. -Jeff Alexander

Pick: Massachusetts +1.5
On Sunday the Free NCAAB Play is on U. Mass. Game 827 at 2:00 eastern. The Minutemen are 13-4 long term vs teams that allow 77 or more points per game in the second halves of the season and have been playing suffocating defense allowing 29 and 30% shooting from the field in their last 2 wins. Tonight they take on a Lasalle team that was destroyed in their last game and are 0-6 ats as a home favorite of 3 or less, 4-15 ats with revenge for a road loss and just 3-14 straight up vs winning teams. Look for U. Mass to get the cash here as a small dog. On Sunday I have 2 Big Blowout Plays. One is in the NBA From a 100% Power System, the Other is a Double Perfect NCAAB Play. Jump on and cash both. Saturday card cashed big. For the free play take U.Mass. -Rob Vinciletti

Pick: Dayton +3
Two huge rivals that always bring the crowd to its feet when Xavier (21-6, 12-1) plays in Dayton against the Flyers (19-9, 7-6). Dayton is 14-3 at home where the hosts have won seven straight in this series and nine of the last 10. Despite winning only 4 times in their last 21 Sunday contests and the favorite winning 14 of the last 19 the Flyers are the side. Take DAYTON! -Chip Chirimbes

NCAA Basketball Predictions: Providence vs. Marquette Odds: February 27th 2011

Providence vs. Marquette
NCAA Basketball Prediction: Providence +10 -110 odds – February 27th 2011
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The Providence Friars are showing excellent value Sunday as a double-digit underdog to Marquette. The Eagles are way overvalued here due to their big overtime victory over Connecticut on Thursday. Providence is coming off a 1-point loss to Notre Dame, resulting in a sour taste in their mouths that they will want to get rid of Sunday. They lost that game despite 52 points from Marshon Brooks, who is arguably the best player in the country.

Providence is 20-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997. A big reason why this line is so inflated is due to five straight losses by the Friars, but they have played four ranked teams during this stretch which includes a 2-point loss at Georgetown and a 1-point loss against Notre Dame. Marquette is fighting to stay alive for the NCAA Tournament, which is another reason for the inflation. The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Eagles may win Sunday, but not by double-digits. Take Providence Sunday.

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NBA Picks: Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds: February 27th 2011

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +3 -110 odds – February 27th 2011
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The T-Wolves enter Sunday’s contest having lost seven straight games. They have also dropped each of the season’s first two meetings with Golden State. And yet this is a solid spot to back the Wolves.

Consider that plays on home underdogs out to avenge two straight losses to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home defeat of 10 points or more, are an impressive 76-38 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 0.6 points. If the opponent was favored in the game that it endured the double-digit defeat, as was the case with Golden State, this system tightens up to an impressive 58-27 ATS. And it is also worth noting that the play on team is now winning by an average of 0.1 points in this spot.

In addition, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Plus, coach Smart’s teams are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games off a home loss by at least 10 points, losing these contests by an average score of 101.1 to 92.8. Lastly, the Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. We’ll take the Wolves in the home dog role Sunday. -Jimmy Boyd

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College Basketball Picks for February 26th 2011: Wager On Depaul And Alabama Saturday

College Basketball Picks: February 26th 2011
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Pick: Depaul -1
DePaul and South Florida are clearly the two worst teams in the Big East. DePaul get the nod at home Saturday as they earn their second Big East victory of the season. This is a team that has been playing their best basketball of the year over the past few weeks. The Blue Demons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. To compare records, DePaul is 7-20 this season while South Florida is 8-20, further proving that this is an evenly matched game. DePaul gets the nod at home because South Florida is just 1-12 on the road this year. The Blue Demons have registered six of their seven wins at home. DePaul is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. South Florida is 3-12 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 4-16 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take DePaul Saturday. -Jack Jones

Pick: Alabama +1
Alabama boasts the best record in the SEC West at 11-2. However, they are 19-8 overall. The Tide needs a 20-win season and a better non-conference record to ensure a ride to the Big Show. They come into this contest winning 14 of 16 SU and going 12-3 ATS. Alabama has one of the best tandem of Forwards in the nation with JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell. The pair are combining for 31.9 PPG and 14.6 RPG. Throw in Guard Trevor Releford (10.3 PPG) and ‘Bama has one solid offensive unit. But, it is their defense that has earned them a lot of attention. They hold opponents to a mere 57.9 PPG. They face a Mississippi squad that has dropped 3 of their L4 SU and 4 of their L5 ATS. In their L3 losses, the Rebels have allowed 74, 71, and 79 points. They rank at or near the bottom in the SEC allowing 36% beyond the arc and 43% FGs. Guards Chris Warren and Zach Graham can score (33.2 PPG combined) but in their 74-64 loss to Alabama 2 weeks ago, Warren was shut down (2-10 shooting) by Guard Senario Hillman. The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 ATS their L6 at the Rebels, 5-0 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600, and 14-3 ATS their L17 vs. the SEC. the Rebels are 2-5 ATS their L7 as a favorite, 1-4 ATS their L5 as a home fav, and 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. the SEC. take Alabama. Thank you. -Joseph D’Amico

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Pick: San Diego State -3.5
The Cougars who have won six of the last seven meetings against the Aztecs. One of those wins came back in January in Provo when the Cougars rallied to get a 71 to 58 home win as a 5.5-point home favorite. BYU must now travel to Viejas Arena and face a primed San Diego State team ready to avenge that earlier defeat. Sources close to the Cougars program have suggested that BYU’s star Jimmer Fredette has started to show signs of fatigue. This kid has averaged NBA type numbers with more than 27 points per game, teams are using double and triple teams against him, this has to wear on him not only mentally but also physically. We saw some of this last Wednesday when missed seventeen of twenty-six shots from the field against Colorado State. BYU has not been a good underdog team going 24-43-2 ATS overall in this role. San Diego State plays stout defense at home holding opponents to just 55.6 points per game on 38.7 percent from the field. They also control the boards out rebounding their opponents by more than seven rebounds per game. The Aztecs have done well in the role of favorite off a straight up win in this price range posting a record of 24-11 ATS their last thirty-five. If they are coming off a road win in this situation, they are 12-3-1 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a conference favorite. BYU on the other hand has struggled coming off a home win and now installed as an underdog going 11-23-1 ATS and 7-18-1 ATS as a conference underdog. This game holds major Big Dance implications and Steve Fishers crew will be well prepared to take care of business. Lay the short number as the Aztecs roll past the Cougars at Viejas Arena on Saturday afternoon. -Robbie Gainous

Pick: Kansas State -3.5
I like KSU in this match up. KSU has won 5 of 6 Big 12 games three double digit home victories, while Missouri has its only conference victory on the road versus lowly ISU. Kansas State is a team that needs to finish strong for any chance of an at large selection, while Missouri and coast to the end of the season with a bid likely clinched. K-State is a very strong team at home this season, with wins over Baylor and a convincing win over Kansas 12 days ago. They shoot much better at home (+6% from three over overall # at 43.2%) and have had a reliable guard option emerge in Rodney McGruder to help take pressure off of Jacob Pullen. KSU also has decent size in Samuels, Kelly and Henriquez- Roberts to help combat Missouri’s talented down low duo of Ratliffe and Bowers. Missouri is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a .600 or above road record, while KSU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-0 as a home favorite. Check out my selections today- going to have a couple of multi-game packs covering NCAA, NBA and NHL. 10-1 last 11 NCAA sides plays, 5-0 All Sports Underdog Plays. -Patrick Webb

College Basketball Predictions: BYU vs. San Diego State Odds: February 26th 2011

BYU vs. San Diego State
College Basketball Prediction: San Diego State -3.5 -110 odds – February 26th 2011
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I’m laying the points with the Aztecs on Saturday afternoon. SDSU is about to embark on the biggest home game in Aztec history. The Viejas Center will be jumping as Jimmer Fredette and the “hated” BYU Cougars roll into town. The winner of this game could very well grab one of the four top seeds in the Big Dance. That’s exactly what’s on the line. There’s a lot of NBA talent on the floor in this matchup and SDSU owns the majority of it. No doubt Jimmer is tough to handle when the Cougars have the ball. But Fredette hasn’t been quite as sharp lately, facing double and even triple teams throughout the season. He only made 9 of 26 shots in BYU’s most recent contest, a win over Colorado State. SDSU normally plays Fredette straight up, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more double-teaming in this one. BYU has nice role players, but no one can really step-up if Fredette is held in check. The best player on the floor wears an Aztec uniform. Kawhi Leonard, a sophomore, will likely enter the NBA draft following this season. At 6’7, he’s not a long range shooter, but owns a fantastic mid-range game. Leonard is also a nice ball-handler off of high screen picks, and will create open cuts to the basket for others. Leonard was unstoppable in the first meeting, a 71-58 BYU win in Provo. But the final score was not indicative of the actual game. SDSU led by a point at the half, and the game was nip-and-tuck for more than 30 minutes of action. BYU pulled away in the final minutes of the contest. Aztec guard D.J. Gay (12.1 ppg) went 0-7 in that contest. I expect a much improved game this time around, helping his team to the win and cover. SDSU is 25-13 ATS at home as a PK or a favorite. I expect another home win and cover in this one. I’m laying the points with San Diego State. Thanks! GL! Scott.

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NCAA Basketball Predictions: Wichita State vs. Missouri State Odds: February 26th 2011

Wichita State vs. Missouri State
NCAA Basketball Prediction: Missouri State -1 -110 odds – February 26th 2011
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You couldn’t ask for a better regular season finale in the MVC as Wichita St. heads to Missouri St. to play for the regular season championship. The Bears have already defeated Wichita St. once this season and while that sets up a revenge game for the Shockers, the final home game of the season for Missouri St. supersedes that. The Bears are 7-1 at home in the conference with the only loss coming by just a single point to Northern Iowa. Wichita St. was the overwhelming favorite to win the conference this season it has played well enough to do so with a 14-3 record but not many people expected the Shockers to be challenged. They have actually performed better on the road than at home this season as they are 9-1 outside of Charles Koch Arena with the only loss being a non-conference setback at San Diego St. Wichita St. is a perfect 8-0 in road MVC games which is a strong reason why the line is as low as it is. Wichita St. has been an underdog only two times this season and it failed to cover both of those games and going back further, the Shockers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of fewer than seven points. They are also just 3-8 ATS this season against teams coming off a win so stopping momentum has been a problem. Meanwhile, Missouri St. is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against teams with a winning road record. On the season it is 19-4 as a favorite and a win here also means a cover. 3* (550) Missouri St. Bears – Matt Fargo

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NBA Predictions: Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors Odds: February 25th 2011

Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors
NBA Prediction: Toronto +4.5 -110 odds – February 25th 2011
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I won with Toronto in its most recent game as it downed Chicago outright on Wednesday. The Raptors remain home and are once again catching points and while I agree that they should be underdogs here, there is absolutely no value on the other side. Toronto is 11-18 at home which is very similar to the road record of the Suns so that is where the lack of value on Phoenix originates from. The Raptors have covered three straight games at home, all of which have been as home underdogs.

The Suns embark on a six-game roadtrip after spending the last two weeks at home in Phoenix with no travel involved. They are coming off a home win over Atlanta on Wednesday which put them a game over .500 on the season but they are still two games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference standings. These games are obviously big ones for Phoenix to try and climb up the ladder but as mentioned, winning on the road has been a real problem for the Suns.

Toronto is just 4-11 following a win this season so it has had trouble stringing consecutive victories together however it has dropped only five of those games against the number and that is more important for our purposes here. The Suns, which were road favorites 18 times last season, have been in this role only three times this year showing how bad they have fallen. They are 1-2 in those games, losing outright in Detroit and Sacramento and covering against lowly Cleveland by just a half-point.

The Suns will be playing without guard Goran Dragic who was traded to Houston while newly acquired guard Aaron Brooks is doubtful so the backcourt will be shorthanded Friday. Toronto falls into a great contrarian situation as well. Play on underdogs that are allowing opponents to shoot 48 percent or better on the season going up against teams that have shot 50 percent or better from the floor in their last two games. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1996. 3* (808) Toronto Raptors

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NHL Picks: Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Mighty Ducks Odds: February 25th 2011

Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Mighty Ducks
NHL Pick: Anaheim -129 odds – February 25th 2011
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Off four straight losses, the Ducks could really use a victory. With the schedule and venue in their favor, this offers an excellent opportunity to get one.

While the Ducks had last night off, the Wild are off a 4-2 loss at LA. They return home after this and their next game is a “revenge” spot against the defending Stanley Cup Champs. Note that the Wild are an ugly 3-10 (-6.7) the last 13 times that they played the second of back to back games.

These teams have faced each other three times. The home team won all three. The Wild won 2-1 at Minnesota on 11/17. The Ducks returned the favor with a 6-2 victory, here at Anaheim, on 12/12. That was followed by a 5-1 Wild victory, at Minnesota, exactly a week ago.

The Ducks are a lucrative 18-11 (+9.9) the past 29 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They’re 61-48 (+20.7) their past 100+ in the “revenge” role. The Ducks are also 15-5 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series, going 3-0 the last three meetings here. Consider Anaheim. -Ben Burns

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