For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the “over”: Bruce Chen gets the nod for the Royals; Chen suffered his first loss of the season last time out. He allowed three runs over 5 2/3′s innings on five hits, three walks with six K’s. He’s 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA in his career vs. the Nats. Important to point out that the Royals have seen the total go “over” the number in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range; also in 8 of 11 inter-league contests. In the other dugout: Livan Hernandez gets the call for the home side; Hernandez is coming off a loss as well. He blew an early lead on Wednesday; he’s now 5-4 with a 2.94 ERA. Hernandez allowed eight runs on seven hits in 6 2/3′s innings against the Tigers; he’s 1-3 over his last eight start. He’s 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his career vs. the Royals. Keep in mind that Washington has seen the total go “over” the number in 9 of 17 vs. left-handed starters this season. Bottom line: The Royals were able to muster 5 runs yesterday, but it wasn’t enough as they lost 8-5 to the Braves; Kansas City has seen the total go “over” the number in three straight now. Washington put 3 runs on the board yesterday, but also came away with a loss, losing 6-3 to the White Sox. When taking into account the recent poor play of each starter, the strong “over” trends that each of these sides exhibits in this position, along with these other factors, you may want to consider a second look at the OVER in this Inter-league contest.
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This number may seem high for a game played in Arizona but with this pitching matchup and the potential for these offenses, I think it is lower than it should be. The Yankees are coming off a 6-3 homestand but the offense saw a huge dip in production following 7.5 rpg through the first four games. Part of the issue was pitching as the Yankees went up against some tough starting pitching over the latter half of the homestand. Arizona is coming off a tough roadtrip where it went 1-5 and averaged only 3.7 rpg on offense but that has been the case for the offense all season when playing outside of Arizona. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 rpg at home compared to 4.1 rpg on the road this season. The Yankees production goes down away from New York but they still average a solid 4.7 rpg in road games. A.J. Burnett has been pitching horrible of late. He started the season with a 1.99 ERA through his first six starts but his last eight starts have seen him post a 6.36 ERA with just two of those starts being quality performances. The Yankees are just 3-5 in those games and even the potent New York offense has been unable to bail him out the majority of the time. Take away three starts against the Orioles and his ERA rises from 3.86 to 5.23. The run support comes back tonight however against Rodrigo Lopez. He has been up and down this season and after a very solid start, it has been mostly down. He has a 5.40 ERA at home this season and over his last six starts, his ERA is 5.85. He has had a lot of experience against the Yankees but it has been bad experience for him unfortunately. He has a 5.90 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 20 career starts against New York. Arizona is 11-3 to the ‘Over’ this season as an underdog of +150 or more while the Yankees are 25-11 to the ‘Over’ in their last 36 games against starting pitchers that allow one or more homeruns per start. 3* Over New York Yankees/Arizona Diamondbacks
Below are MLB baseball betting picks for June 20th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free MLB baseball predictions on a daily basis or premium picks from our MLB baseball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Free Pick: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 -160 (Steve Merril)
The last two times Jake Arrieta has taken the mound, the Orioles have won. Baltimore turns to the rookie for a third time this season in hopes of another victory. Arrieta is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA on the year. Last time out, he gave up one run and three hits in seven innings of work against the Giants. Now he’ll face a Padres team that isn’t overwhelming offensively. As a team, San Diego is hitting just .247 while scoring only four runs per game this season. San Diego’s Jon Garland is going thru a rough patch. He’s 0-3 with a 6.50 ERA in his last three games giving up 13 runs and 24 hits in 18 innings of work. The Orioles have faced Garland 10 times in his career. He gave up eight runs and 16 hits in his last 12.3 innings pitched against Baltimore. Miguel Tejada (13-32), Nick Markakis (6-14), Julio Lugo (3-11), and Luke Scott (6-11) all have good numbers against Garland. The Orioles have covered the run line in three of their last four games, and we expect another close game here which means we recommend taking Baltimore on the run line in this game.
Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds -125 (Nick Parsons)
I believe that Cincinnati will finally come alive at the plate and do just enough in this game to avoid the series sweep in Seattle: Aaron Harang gets the nod for the visitors; Harang is coming off his worst outing of the season; he’d given up just five earned runs over his previous three starts before allowing five on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings vs. the Dodgers on Tuesday night. I believe the big right-hander will bounce back tonight though; Harang has made two career starts at Safeco and is 1-0 without allowing a run over 14 1/3 innings with 13 total K’s. Remember as well that Cincinnati has reserved its “best play” for struggling teams this season; 22-12 (+8 units) against clubs with losing records. In the other dugout: The beleaguered Ryan Rowland-Smith heads to the mound for the home side; the large lefty has lost his last two starts and is a dismal 0-6 on the season. Although the M’s have been better at the plate of late, Rowland-Smith hasn’t been the beneficiary of any of that offensive production. Although its struggled in almost every single ATS statistical category this year, this is in fact a position that Seattle has done very poorly in all season; it’s 6-16 (-12.2 units) in “day games”. Bottom line: “The last couple of days, we’ve faced two of the American League’s best in King Felix and (Lee) yesterday (in a 1-0 loss),” Reds manager Dusty Baker lamented after yesterday’s 5-1 loss to Hernandez. “We just have to come back tomorrow.” Harang has a 1.32 ERA in four career starts vs. Seattle. You may want to take a second look at CINCINNATI in this position as it looks to take advantage of the M’s worst starter.
Free Pick: Florida Marlins -119 (Jack Jones)
Rarely will you find Josh Johnson at this kind of price at home. If it weren’t for Ubaldo Jimenez and his ridiculous numbers this season, Johnson would be the one in line to win the NL Cy Young award at this point of the year. Johnson is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 14 starts this season, and he’s 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 9 home starts. Video game-like numbers would describe Johnson’s efforts over his last 7 starts. In those 7 outings, Johnson has allowed a total of 3 earned runs in 51 innings pitched. That equates to a 0.53 ERA and it also has resulted in five wins for the Marlins. In four of those seven starts, Johnson didn’t allow a single earned run. David Price is solid for the Rays, but he is no Josh Johnson. Roll with the Marlins Sunday.
Free Pick: Chicago White Sox -105 (Tom Freese)
White Sox starter Freddie Garcia has allowed 12 runs total in his last 4 starts. Chicago is 13-3 their last 16 Interleague road games. The Pale Hose are 6-0 their last 6 games as favorites. Chicago is 36-16 in the last 52 starts made by Garcia on the road. The White Sox are 11-1 the last 12 starts made by Garcia in Interleague play. Washinton starter John Lannan 17 runs in his last 15.1 innings of work. The Nationals are 61-130 their last 191 games off a loss. Washington is 8-20 their 28 games vs. righty starters and they are 0-5 their last 5 games overall. The Nats are 6-20 their last 26 games as underdogs. PLAY CHICAGO (Garcia vs. Lannan)
Free Pick: Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 (John Ryan)
3* graded play UNDER Cleveland/Pittsburgh set to start at 1:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 9 runs will be scored in this game. Every once in a while we get a situation where the teams are projected to be weak offensively and also has a home plate umpire with a generous strike zone. Paul Emmel is that type of umpire and teams have batted 243 with a 310 OBP this season and 250 with a 314 OBP over the past 3 seasons. CLV is batting just 248 and scoring 4.2 RPG on the season and 236 with a 310 OBP scoring 4.0 RPG against RH starters spanning 44 games. Their bullpen have really pulled it together and have posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.321 WHIP over the past 7 games. The Pirates are near identical team batting 237 with a 302 WHIP scoring 3.3 RPG on the season and batting 236 and scoring 3.6 RPG over the past 7 games.Their bullpen has been one of the best in baseball recently sporting a 1.89 ERA and a 1.263 WHIP over the past 7 games. Take the UNDER.
Free Pick: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Under 8.5 (Wunderdog)
This is a great primetime matchup for a pair of New York rivals. Johan Santana faces C.C. Sabathia. These are two pitchers both capable of putting up 0s deep into the game. Both of these teams are strong when you get to the back of the pen, avoiding the weak underbelly of the bullpen. The Mets are 7-0 to the UNDER in their last seven on the road vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than .600. The Yankees are 8-1 to the UNDER behind Sabathia at home vs. a winning team. The UNDER gets the call.
Below are MLB baseball picks for June 19th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free MLB baseball picks on a daily basis or premium picks from our MLB baseball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Pick: Giants vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5 (Jeff Alexander)
Cain has been dealing. He has an ERA of 1.90 on the road this season, and over his last 3 starts his ERA is just 0.75. The Giants have been Under this number in each of his last 7 starts. Litsch was roughed up badly in flighty Coors Field in his first start of the season, but I expect him to be much better at home tonight when you consider that the Under is 6-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. It is also worth noting that the Under is 13-3 in the Giants’ last 16 interleague road games. We cashed in our free play on the Under in this matchup yesterday and we’ll stick with it today.
Pick: Indians vs. Pirates Under 9 (Steve Merril)
Pittsburgh lost their 12th straight game last night as they fell 4-3 to the Indians. The two teams continue their series on Saturday night. David Huff gets the start for Cleveland. Last year, he shut the Pirates out for eight innings giving up just four hits in that outing. Bobby Crosby (0-6), Andrew McCutchen (0-4), and Andy LaRoche (0-3) are all looking for their first hit against Huff. The Pirates are 9-10 against left-handed starters scoring just 3.7 runs per game against them. At home, the Pirates have gone Under in 17 of their 33 games while hitting just .236 at PNC Park. And their offense is not in good current form either. In their last 13 games, they’ve scored five runs or more just three times. Jeff Karstens has been solid for the Pirates. He’s 1-2 with a 4.04 ERA in six starts. The righty is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two home starts this season for Pittsburgh. Only two Indians have faced him and they are Anderson Hernandez (3-5) and Luis Valbuena (0-1). Cleveland has gone Under in 17 of their 34 road games. They are also hitting .236 as a team against right-handed starters this season. Karstens is backed by a bullpen that has a 4.03 ERA at home. Neither offense can be trusted here which means we expect a low-scoring game and recommend playing the Under in this game tonight.
Pick: New York Yankees -178 (John Ryan)
3* graded play on the Yankees as they take on the Mets set to start at 1:05. Loser of 3 straight now and with Boston just 1 behind them and the Rays will serve up some focus for this game today. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Yankees will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 72-19 making 37.5 units since 2004. Play against road dogs with a money line of +150 or more with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season and is a poor power team averaging 0.9 or less HR’s/game on the season. Yankees are an amazing 23-3 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Yanks.
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Southern Division rivals meet for the second time on the AFL betting season in Week 12, as the Jacksonville Sharks travel to Amway Arena for their duel with the Orlando Predators. The Sharks are going to be the second straight team that the Preds have faced off of their bye week. Orlando suffered a crippling 53-52 loss in the dying seconds to the Spokane Shock last week that dropped them back below .500 and cost them a chance to get back into the playoff race in the American Conference.
QB Aaron Garcia is having a fantastic year for the Sharks. He has thrown 55 touchdown passes and is now the all-time leading TD passer in AFL history. He wouldn’t be anywhere without his two big name targets to throw the ball to this year. WR Jomo Wilson has 71 catches for 842 yards and 18 scores on the season, and he has amassed 23 touchdowns and 1,447 total yards from scrimmage on the season. WR Dallas Baker isn’t a slacker either. The former Florida Gator already has 16 TDs in his seven games played, and he is coming off of a Week 10 performance in which he had career highs in receptions (11), yards (150), and touchdowns (5).
Things are falling apart in Orlando right now, and this might be a team to avoid for at least the foreseeable future. The Preds not only lost a heartbreaker to Spokane last week, but veteran DB Kenny McEntyre called out his quarterback in the process. The locker room very well could be divided on the issue of QB Nick Hill, who has only thrown 38 touchdowns against 12 picks on the regular season. Hill has added nine TDs on the ground as well, and he may have to use his feet more this week than normal. WR Derrick Lewis is out for the rest of the season after tearing his MCL, while WR Bobby Sippio remains sidelined this week as well. That really just leaves WR TT Toliver to carry the load. Toliver has 949 receiving yards and 14 TDs this year for HC Pat O’Hara.
Earlier this season, the Sharks trumped the Preds 57-31 in Jacksonville. The AFL odds lined the visitors as 4.5 point favorites on the opening line, but since that point, Orlando has gotten some action, and the line has dropped to a flat 4.
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The Angels begin a series in Chicago with a familiar foe in Carlos Silva who gets the start for the Cubs. Silva is 8-1 with a 2.89 ERA this season for the Cubs. However, Los Angeles faced Silva twice last year and he gave up five runs and 10 hits in 12 innings of work. Bobby Abreu (11-20), Mike Napoli (4-12), Howard Kendrick (5-10), Erick Aybar (3-6), Brandon Wood (1-3), and Juan Rivera (1-2) have good numbers against Silva. The Angels are 20-17 on the road hitting .262 as a team. They have won three straight road games and eight of their last 10 away from home.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are in the middle of a nine-game homestand during which they are just 3-3. They’ll face a suddenly improving Scott Kazmir who is 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. Kazmir has given up just a total of four runs in those outings. The lefty faced the Cubs in 2008 giving up one run and three hits in 4.7 innings of work while striking out seven. Alfonso Soriano (1-6), Xavier Nady (1-5), Geovany Soto (0-2), and Derrek Lee (0-1) all struggle against Kazmir. Chicago is just 17-16 at home, and since they’ve scored just 25 runs in their last seven games, we’ll recommend a play on the Angels in this spot, especially getting a generous plus price.
Below are MLB baseball predictions for June 18th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free MLB baseball picks on a daily basis or premium picks from our MLB baseball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Prediction: San Diego Padres -152 (Jimmy Boyd)
The O’s are just 3-10 in Matusz’s starts this season, and he is carrying an ERA of 5.75 on the road. In fact, the Orioles are 1-9 in Matusz’s last 10 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. In addition, the Orioles are just 11-41 in their last 52 road games and 12-39 in their last 51 series openers. Baltimore has really struggled against lefty starters (hitting just .235), and it is 13-38 in its last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter. This means the Padres should be in good hands with LeBlanc, who is boasting an ERA of just 1.47 over his last 3 starts. The Padres are 35-16 in their last 51 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take the Padres.
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds +133 (Tony Karpinski)
Gotta love the underdog value with the Reds on Friday night. They have the top offense in the NL and playing against a Seattle team who has no power in their lineup. The punchless Mariners are second worst in the AL in runs and last in HR’s. Cincy starter Johnny Cueto is healthy again and a budding young ace, with a great fastball (65 Ks in 78 innings) and a 6-1 record. I like the better offense with the nice young pitcher on the hill in the final game on the board in Interleague action Friday night.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays -154 (Dave Price)
The Rays have taken 13 of the last 17 from the Fish, including 7 of the last 8 when in the visitor’s dugout. They will have an excellent opportunity to continue their winning ways tonight with Robertson taking the mound for Florida when you consider that he is just 4-16 on the money line when facing a team with a winning record the last 3 seasons. We also can’t overlook the fact that Florida is laying a goose egg (0-8) as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. Look for the Rays to tee off on Robertson and for Garza to take care of the rest.
Prediction: Giants vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5 (Jeff Alexander)
I expect a pitcher’s duel to result in the Under in Toronto this evening. Zito is having a terrific season, going 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA. His success should continue in Toronto against a Blue Jays club that has been atrocious against lefty starters. The Jays are only hitting .198 and scoring just 2.7 runs per game against lefty starters. The Jays send Morrow to the mound and he has been money at home all season, going 4-1 with an ERA of 3.41. He has especially been dialed in recently, posting an ERA of only 1.35 over his last 3 starts. Zito is 9-1 Under on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 4.1 total runs scored in these games on average. Plus, the Under is 4-0 in Morrow’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Under.
Prediction: Colorado Rockies -1.5 +130 (Rocky Atkinson)
Colorado is 28-9 the past 3 years as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.67 ERA overall this year and a 5.35 ERA on the road this season. Colorado is scoring 5.4 runs per game at home this year. Colorado bullpen has a 3.24 ERA overall this year and a 3.20 ERA at home this season. Manny Parra is 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA in all games this year and 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA his last 3 starts. Jason Hammel is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA at home this year and 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA his last 3 starts. Colorado is 5-1 at home vs Milwaukee the past 3 years. Parra is 0-1 with a 16.85 ERA overall vs Colorado since 1997. Hammel is 2-0 overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. Laying the Runline in this one shouldn’t be a problem. We’ll recommend a small play on Colorado on the Runline tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
On Friday the free MLB Play is on the San Francisco Giants. Game 915 at 7:05 eastern. The Giants have some solid edges here tonight. They have cashed 6 of 8 this season when playing with a day off and have won 7 of 10 On Fridays. Tonight they take on Toronto team that is terrible vs left handed pitching. They are 1-5 at home vs leftys and are averaging 2.7 runs per game on .198 hitting so far this season.In the pitching matchup the Giants have B. Zito who looks to have regained his form from years past. Zito has a solid 3.10 era and the Giants have cashed 9 of his 13 team starts. In his career vs Toronto he is 8-2. Tonight he opposes bright young righty B.Morrow who can bring it with a fastball that approaches triple digits. Morrow has problems at times with location and will not reach his peak until he resolves his control issues. He has a 5.41 era this season. Look for the Giants to get game 1 tonight. On Friday I have two 100% MLB system plays. One of which is the Run line Game of the Year. This game is also backed with a pair of angles that are 30-2. We sent the another Big NBA campaign out in style cashing with the Celtics. Now we have a Big Fathers day weekend planned. For the free play tonight we have a nice dog with the San Francisco Giants. RV
1.) System Play. We’ll Play Against – All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ARIZONA) – cold hitting team – batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 61-5 ML System hitting 92.4% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +50.7 Units.
2.) Dontrelle Willis pitched for Detroit earlier this season, so Tigers hitters know what to expect from him and should put up a big number before knocking the lefty out early. Meanwhile, Armando Galarraga should continue his run as he’s 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.784 WHIP in his last 3 starts, not allowing more than 2 earned runs in any of the three outings. The Diamondbacks are 9-25 in road games this year, while the Tigers are 27-8 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Bet Detroit at home.
With the way Royals starter Brian Bannister has pitched of late and with his struggles on the road, this is an easy choice backing the Atlanta Braves Friday night. Bannister has posted an 8.05 ERA and 1.660 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In 6 road starts this season, Bannister has gone 1-3 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.729 WHIP. The righty has allowed 28 earned runs and 53 base runners in 30.2 innings away from home.
Derek Lowe sports a solid 5-2 record with a 3.74 ERA and 1.177 WHIP in 7 home starts this season. Lowe has given up just 51 base runners in 43.1 innings at home, also allowing only 3 home runs. Bannister has served up 8 long balls on the road this year, including 3 in his last start at Cincinnati where he gave up 11 runs (9 earned) in 3 innings of a 5-11 loss. Knowing that Atlanta is 20-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season, I’m willing to lay the juice as we fade Bannister tonight. Roll with the Braves Friday.