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College Basketball Picks: Florida State vs. Miami Florida Odds: January 19th 2011

Florida State vs. Miami Florida
College Basketball Pick: Miami -1.5 -110 odds – January 19th 2011
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This is a good time to fade Florida St. A week ago tonight, the Seminoles upset then undefeated and number one Duke and followed that up with a blowout win over an overmatched NC State team. Now they hit the road for the first time since where they are 4-2 on the season including losses in their last two. One of those losses came in the ACC at Virginia Tech and now they head to Miami to face the Hurricanes which will be out for revenge after last season’s home finale defeat by a point.

Miami is just 1-2 in the ACC with losses coming at Duke and at Clemson and the lone win coming last time out over Boston College by a point. The Hurricanes are a perfect 9-0 at home and over the last four seasons the Hurricanes have compiled a 46-10 record at home. The Hurricanes are ranked 32nd in the latest NCAA Men’s Basketball RPI rankings released on Jan. 17, the third-highest ranked squad in the ACC, behind Duke at 10th and North Carolina at 25th.

Florida St. is known for its tough defense but the Hurricanes are deep and they have the athletes that can negate that edge. Miami is the only team to have two scorers among the ACC’s top 10 and three scorers among the ACC’s top 20 in Malcolm Grant (15.0 ppg, 8th), Durand Scott (14.2 ppg, 9th) and Reggie Johnson (12.1 ppg, 20th). Miami also has a big advantage at the free throw line both overall and in home/road splits and with a line this small, that can make or break the cover.

An mentioned, this is a revenge game for Miami and it is actually a triple-revenge situation and the line is right knowing it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games with a line set between +3 and -3. Florida St. meanwhile is 4-13 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 and it is also 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after playing a game as a home favorite. 3* Miami Hurricanes

NBA Basketball Picks for January 19th 2011: Take The Bucks, Warriors And Celtics Wednesday

NBA Basketball Picks: January 19th 2011
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Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -7
Off a pair of surprising straight up home wins over Toronto and Utah, Washington will get a quick reality check when it visits Milwaukee on Wednesday night. The Wizards are 0-for-the-2010-11 road sporting a nasty 0-19 SU and 6-13 ATS record and this trip to Wisconsin will be a tough encore. Off two or more straight up wins and running against a rested opponent, Washington has struggled something fierce notching a pathetic 46-80 SU and 44-81-1 ATS record including just 16-58 SU and 23-50-1 ATS priced as a dog in this role. This series hasn’t been magical for the Wizards either. In the last 36 meetings against the Bucks, Washington has produced a soft 14-22 SU and 12-23-1 ATS record including just 6-10 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in this role checking in off a straight up win. Off three consecutive losses to San Antonio, Philadelphia and Houston, Milwaukee will be champing to get back on the winning track. According to my NBA database, the Bucks have ripped off an impressive 33-16 SU and 29-19-1 ATS mark at home arriving off a straight up loss including a juicy 28-5 SU and 22-10-1 ATS priced as a favorite or pick. With those two parameters in play and Milwaukee battling a conference foe, this team trend explodes to a phenomenal 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS! The Bucks last five home games were against San Antonio, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta and Utah and they were fortunate enough to at least win one of those against the Mavs. Washington is a serious step down in class compared to those juggernauts so expect head coach Scott Skiles’ troops to take control early and cruise to an easy victory. Take Milwaukee. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

Pick: Golden State Warriors -4
I’m laying the points with Golden State on Wednesday night. I had the Warriors on these pages on Monday and we cashed the ticket. As I said on Monday, the Warriors are getting healthy and along the way they’re putting “greenbacks” in your pocket. Golden State is on a 10-3 ATS run and they just handed the improved LA Clippers a 122-112 loss before the win and cover on Monday afternoon. Getting healthier by the day and playing just their third game since Friday night, I expect the Warriors to slam the struggling Pacers without much trouble. Indiana is on a 2-8-1 ATS slide away from home, while the Warriors have covered six in a row at this venue. I’m laying the points with Golden State on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer

Pick: Boston Celtics -11.5
Boston will be out to avenge a 12-point loss at Detroit late last month. Kevin Garnett suffered a calf injury in the 1st quarter of that game and Rajon Rondo didn’t play at all. With these two in the lineup, we can expect a much different result this time around. “We look like a totally different team out there,” forward Paul Pierce said. “You can’t replace what Kevin gives to a ballclub. … He raises everyone’s play when he’s on the court.” This was certainly the case in his return against the Orlando Magic Monday. Plus, it will be even more important to have Rondo in the lineup. Everything the Celtics do goes through the league leader in assists. Rondo dominated the Pistons while dishing out 17 assists in a 109-86 win at Detroit on Nov. 2. Boston is 10-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more. Lastly, the Pistons are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Bet Boston. -Jimmy Boyd

NBA Picks: Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Odds: January 19th 2011

Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +8 -110 odds – January 19th 2011
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5* graded play on Cleveland as they host Phoenix set to start at 7:00 PM ET in NBA action. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than seven points. Cleveland is arguably the worst team in the league, but Phoenix is three games under 500 and no team that ranks 30th in scoring defense allowing 109.3 points per game should be favored by seven points in a road game. Phoenix allows 12.5 offensive boards per game reflecting extremely poor defense and fundamental rebounding. The simulator shows that Cleveland will get between 10 and 15 offensive boards in this game. Note that Cleveland is a solid 30-16 ATS in home games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last three seasons. Phoenix is just 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-17 using the money line that has made 32.5 units since 2005. Play against any team using the money line off an upset win as a dog facing an opponent off three or more consecutive road losses. Take Cleveland and add a 2* amount on the Money Line.

NFL Conference Championships Point Spreads & Betting Preview: January 18th 2011

NFL Conference Championships Point Spreads & Betting Preview

The NFL Conference Championships are set for this Sunday with the winners of last week’s Divisional Round advancing to the league’s final four with a chance to represent their respective conference in Super Bowl XLV. Each game is a rematch of an earlier meeting this season. In the case of the NFC, these teams will be playing each other for the third time so everyone is already extremely familiar with one another.

The NFC will take center-stage first on Sunday with the No. 2 seed Chicago Bears hosting their longtime divisional rival No. 6 seed Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field in a 3 p.m. (ET) start. Green Bay took the scenic route to get to this game. First, the Packers held off No. 3 Philadelphia 21-16 in the Wildcard Round as a one-point road underdog. The total stayed ‘under’ the 46 ½ point line. Next, they rolled over No.1 Atlanta 48-21 as once again a one-point road underdog in the Divisional Round. This time, Green Bay took the 43 ½ point total line ‘over’ on its own.

Chicago is coming off a 35-24 thumping of Seattle as a 10-point home favorite in the Divisional Round. The total went well ‘over’ the 42 ½ point line. The Bears had a bye in the Wildcard Round by virtue of winning the NFC North with the second-best record in the conference at 11-5.

These two teams met twice during the regular season with each team winning at home. Chicago came away with a 20-17 victory in Week 3 as a three-point home underdog. The total stayed ‘under’ the 45 ½ point line. Green Bay returned the favor with a 10-3 win as an 11-point home favorite in the final game of the regular season. The total came nowhere close to the 43 ½ point line.

This time around, Green Bay has been opened as a 3 ½-point road favorite and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 44.

The second game pits the upstart No. 6 seed New York Jets against the No. 2 seed Pittsburgh Steelers in a 6:30 p.m. start at Heinz Field. The Jets have become the ‘toast of the town’ with two impressive road wins in this year’s playoffs. First, they knocked off Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts 17-16 on a last-second field goal in the Wildcard Round. New York closed as a one-point road underdog and the total stayed ‘under’ the 44 point line. Next, they did the unthinkable by pounding Tom Brady and the New England Patriots 28-21 in the Divisional Round. This time New York closed as a 9 ½-point road underdog and the total went ‘over’ the 45 point line.

Pittsburgh used a 24-point second half burst to get by the No. 5 seed Baltimore Ravens 31-24 in the Divisional Round. The Steelers closed as a 3 ½-point home favorite and the total went ‘over’ the 37 ½-point line. They were coming off a bye in the Wildcard Round after winning the AFC North with a record of 12-4.

The Jets and Steelers met in Week 15 with Pittsburgh closing as a 3 ½-point home favorite and the ‘over/under’ line set at 36. New York pulled out a 22-17 win on a late field goal and safety along with a crucial defensive stop deep in its own territory with two minutes left to play.

The Steelers have once again been opened as a 3 ½-point home favorite with the ‘over/under’ line set at 38 ½.

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Clemson vs. North Carolina Pick & Odds: January 18th 2011

Clemson vs. North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina -5 -110 odds – January 18th 2011
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Clemson may be riding an 8-game winning streak into this one, but North Carolina is favored for a reason here. The Tigers have played a very soft schedule all season, especially during their winning streak where they have played seven home games and just one road contest. Clemson is just 3-3 on the road this season while North Carolina is 7-1 at home, outscoring opponents by 12.6 points/game. Their only home loss came against a very good Texas team by a final of 76-78. Plays on home favorites off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival are 38-10 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Tar Heels are showing excellent value here, especially coming off their worst loss of the season which obviously means this team is going to come back hungry for a win at home. North Carolina is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1997. This has been a very one-sided series as the Tar Heels have won 20 of the last 25 meetings, and they have been unbeatable at home. North Carolina is 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with Clemson. The Tigers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Clemson is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams – shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Take North Carolina and lay the points.

College Basketball Betting: Kentucky vs. Alabama Odds & Pick: January 18th 2011

Kentucky vs. Alabama
Pick: Under 132.5 -110 odds – January 18th 2011
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#12 Kentucky (14-3, 2-1 SEC) vs. Alabama (10-7, 2-1 SEC) play each other tonight at 9:00 PM EST in an SEC matchup at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The 2 try to break the tie they share for first place in the SEC. Last game out for Kentucky a dominant 82-44 decision over LSU on Saturday, Kentucky moved to 14-3 overall and 2-1 in conference action. Thanks in large part to T. Jones, B. Knight, and D. Lamb Kentucky is generating 80.0 ppg. As for Alabama their 5 game streak came to an end with a 70-65 setback to Arkansas. Alabama has been a tough team to figure out, as they average just 67.5 points per game shooting 45.8 percent from the floor and are averaging 38.9 offensive rebounds per game. They are now 10-7 and return home where they are a perfect 9-0 to date, and are generating 67.5 ppg. What I really like about them is their defense that has led to the 10 wins. The Tide are limiting foes to 56.8 ppg on 35.8 percent shooting from the field. I expect them to keep this one close and to slow down the pace to fit their style. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of last 6 games for Bama when playing Kentucky. 2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons, Under is 12-5 in ALAB last 17 Tue. games. Kentucky owns a commanding 100-35 series lead over Alabama, which includes five straight wins over the Tide. Bet the UNDER.

NBA Picks: Charlotte Bobcats vs. Chicago Bulls Odds: January 18th 2011

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Chicago Bulls
NBA Pick: Charlotte Bobcats +8 -110 odds – January 18th 2011
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On Tuesday the NBA Free Play is on the Charlotte Bobcats. Game 503 at 8:05 eastern. Charlotte takes on the Bulls tonight as both teams come off road games with no rest. These two hooked up just 6 days ago in Charlotte with the Bobcats coming away with a 96-91 win. Tonight the Bulls fit a negative system that is 1-12 ats since 1995. What we want to do is play against home favorites of 5 or more with no rest if they scored 90 or more points as a dog of 5 or more and are now taking on an opponent that scored 90 or more as a road dog, had 25 or less assists and had 1 or more previous day of rest. If the total in these games is 180 or more our road team has covered 12 of 13 times. The Bulls are just 13-27 ats vs South East Division teams. Look for Charlotte to get the cover tonight. On Tuesday I have the Double Perfect BIG 12 Game of the Month backed with several solid angles including the two that are unbeaten. On Monday we had our second straight sweep going 3-0 once again. Jump on tonight. For the Free NBA Play take Charlotte. See the System Below. -Rob Vinciletti

Hockey Picks: Nashville Predators vs. Phoenix Coyotes Odds: January 18th 2011

Nashville Predators vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Hockey Pick: Phoenix Coyotes -120 odds
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Nashville is 1-8 this year after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 4-1 SU and ATS at home vs Nashville the past 3 years. Predators are 6-20 in their last 26 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference. Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Coyotes are 26-8 in their last 34 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Coyotes are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. Central. Coyotes are 10-4 in their last 14 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Coyotes are 20-8 in their last 28 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Coyotes are 32-15 in their last 47 games as a favorite. Favorite is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Home team is 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings. Predators are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. We’ll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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College Basketball Picks for January 18th 2011: Bet North Carolina And Alabama On Tuesday

College Basketball Picks: January 18th 2011
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Pick: North Carolina -5.5
Expect UNC to bounce back strong following an embarrassing loss at Georgia Tech in its last game. The Heels will draw added motivation from a 19-point loss at Clemson last season. The Heels are happy to be back home where they are 8-0 this season. Dating back to 1998, UNC has won 11 straight at home against the Tigers by an average score of 83 to 65. This is an ideal spot to back the Tar Heels. Consider that UNC is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. It is winning by an average score of 84.3 to 67.4 in this situation. Also, Clemson is just 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents since the beginning of last season. In addition, the Tigers are only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. UNC has more talent and the motivation to take care of business tonight. Lay the points. -Jimmy Boyd

Pick: Alabama +4
The Wildcats travel to Tuscaloosa for an SEC battle versus the host Crimson Tide on Tuesday night with tipoff set for 9:00PM Eastern Time. The two rivals use completely different styles of play with Kentucky an offensive team that leads the Conference averaging 80 points per game, while Alabama is the league’s top ranked defensive squad allowing a mere 56 points per game. Kentucky shoots the three-ball well which triggers an angle; Alabama is 15-4 ATS in home games versus teams making thirty-seven percent or more of their attempts after 15 or more games. On the defensive side of the ball the Wildcats have struggled causing turnovers and this also triggers an angle; Alabama is 6-0 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing fourteen or fewer turnovers per game the last 2 seasons. Kentucky enters tonight’s contest off two blowout victories both at home winning versus Auburn 78 to 54 and most recently defeating LSU 82 to 44. The Wildcats are 4-18 ATS after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more and 0-6 ATS after allowing 50 points or less the last 3 seasons. With the Tide’s strong perimeter defense, we will back them here as they give the Wildcats all they can stand in Tuscaloosa on Tuesday night. -Robbie Gainous

NHL Picks: Vancouver Canucks vs. Colorado Avalanche Odds: January 18th 2011

Vancouver Canucks vs. Colorado Avalanche
NHL Pick: Colorado Avalanche +110 odds
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I successfully played against the Canucks in their last game, releasing a “free play” on the Minnesota Wild. The Canucks were fairly decent sized favorites. However, the Wild won by a score of 4-0.

The Canucks are road favorites again tonight, albeit considerably smaller ones. Once again, I won’t be surprised if they suffer an “upset” loss.

The Canucks are now 1-2 their last three games. They were blanked in both losses.

The Avalanche, on the other hand, have won two of three. They scored four or more in each victory. Their last game here at Colorado resulted in a 5-4 victory over the Red Wings.

The Canucks, who are dealing with a few injuries, are playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip here. They haven’t been home in more than a week. Having already gone 4-0 in this series so far this season, it may be easy to overlook the Avs and to get caught thinking ahead to the return trip to Vancouver.

Conversely, the Avs should be extremely motivated. The Canucks are the division leaders and they’d desperately like to beat them, if only once.

Despite their struggles against the Canucks, the Avs are still a lucrative 47-42 (+20) against winning teams, the past few seasons. That includes a 15-8 (+9.2) mark this year. Really, they’ve been able to beat practically every other “good” team – just not Vancouver.

The Avs are 10-6 (+5.7) the last 16 times that they were playing with “revenge,” going a profitable 32-20 (+21.4) in that role the past few seasons.

If the Avs are ever going to beat their “nemesis,” now should be as good a time as any. Consider Colorado

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