Washington/Orlando OVER 192 ½ (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday) – The Wizards have been playing some pretty good defense lately but we think they run into a buzzsaw tonight in Orlando and we see the Magic having a great offensive night tonight – good enough to pass this total mostly on the strength of their own offense. This is the third game in four nights for Washington and we just don’t see them putting up much defensive resistance tonight. Orlando has had two nights off and we think they shoot the lights out tonight. This team averages 104 PPG at home and we think they can do even better than that tonight. While some teams like to slow the pace down once they have a big lead Orlando is not shy about jacking up threes every time down the court when they are up by 20 in the fourth quarter. The Wizards have played pretty well offensively their last couple games, even though those games were against inferior defenses, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that they can score here tonight. But we think Orlando gets in the 110 range tonight with the Wizards making up the difference to get this one over the posted number.
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5* graded play on Phoenix as they take on San Antonio in NBA action set to start at 10:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Phoenix will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-28 ATS for 69.2% winners since 2004. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread and in a game involving two good teams posting winning percentages between 60% to 75%. Here is a 2nd system that has produced 76% winners for a 35-11 ATS mark since 2004. Play on any team scoring 103+ points/game on the season and after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. SA is not a high pressure defensive team and Phoenix has doe very well against similar styles. They are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the 2nd half of the season this season. Take Phoenix.
At 2:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Kansas City Royals. The Tigers aren’t through with Dontrelle Willis. At least not yet. The 28-year-old lefthander showed enough promise in the spring that he made the Detroit rotation as the 5th starter and in fact made the Tigers comfortable enough with his left arm that they shipped their only other potential lefthanded veteran starter, Nate Robertson, off to Florida in late March. Although Willis didn’t blow guys away, he went a very respectable 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts for his team and this first assignment against the Royals will actually be Willis’ first ever regular season start against them. Willis’ opponent on the hill will be righthanded veteran Brian Bannister and while Willis had a productive spring, Bannister definitely did not, putting up a 7.41 ERA in five spring starts. The Tigers improved themselves in the bullpen with the off-season acquisition of closer Jose Valverde, while their new lead-off man and center fielder Austin Jackson looks like he’s going to make the team forget about the loss of Curtis Granderson pretty quickly. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck…Al McMordie.
I played on Ottawa successfully two nights ago and they beat up on the Panthers 5-2; for a number of different reasons I believe they’ll once again come out on top tonight against a team they’ve owned historically: After losing 4-1 to the Islanders on Saturday, the Sens bounced back with that 5-2 win over Florida on Tuesday. “We did some good things. I thought we worked hard on the penalty kill,” said coach Cory Clouston, whose team has held its last eight opponents to 2 for 31 on the power play. “We generated the offense that we wanted. I thought we lost a little bit of focus toward the end of third but overall very happy with the game.” Not only is Ottawa 7-1 its last eight, its also 4-1 its last five on the road. On the other side of the ice: Only the Leafs have allowed more goals this year than the Lightning. They are coming off a 5-0 loss to the Rangers on Friday and an 8-5 home loss to the Hurricanes on Tuesday. Antero Niittymaki fell to 4-9-0 with a 4.09 goals-against average in his last 16 appearances and was relieved Tuesday by Mike Smith, one game after Smith was chased in favor of Niittymaki. Tampa is limping down the stretch; 1-4 its last five overall; 1-6 its last seven in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: Ottawa is clearly the more motivated team here and will look to secure the fourth spot with a victory tonight; consider a second look at the decently priced SENATORS in this one.
Below are free MLB Picks and baseball betting predictions for April 7th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free MLB baseball picks on a daily basis or premium picks from our MLB baseball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -160 (Dave Price)
The Dodgers are 47-18 in the last 65 meetings in this series so I look for them to bounce back with a win behind Kershaw tonight. Kershaw has been at his best in game 2 of a series. In fact, the Dodgers are 7-1 in Kershaw’s last 8 game 2 starts during a series. On the whole, LA has been a strong game 2 team. The Dodgers are 44-21 in their last 65 game 2′s of a series. The Pirates are just 1-5 in Ohlendorf’s last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. We’ll take the Dodgers tonight.
Free MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -143 (Craig Trapp)
After a very embarrassing loss on opening day the Cubs look to try and play a little closer in game #2. Don’t look for much improvement as this Cubs teams is just a flawed team. On offense the Cubs rely too much on the HR from free swinging hitters. Defensively and pitching they aren’t much better either. Tonight Dempster takes the mound for Cubs and is looking to change history as he is 2-11 against the Braves. On the other side ATL can hit for average or power and are a much more well rounded team on defense. Look for Jurrgens to dominate this lineup of the Cubs as ATL powers past the Cubs again. Very easy winner tonight!
These teams have split two meetings at Nashville this season. However, the Coyotes won the lone meeting here at Phoenix. That’s not that surprising, given their outstanding record at home this season.
For the season, the Coyotes have gone 28-12 (28-10-2) here in the desert. That includes a perfect 6-0 mark their last six here. This is their final home game of the regular season, so they’ll be looking to go out on a winning note. That’s particularly true, as they may face the Predators in the first round of the playoffs. They’d like to send a message to Nashville and the rest of the league, that winning here at Phoenix will not be easy.
Of course, the same line of thinking holds true for the Preds, as they’d like to prove that they can win here. That said, I feel that the extra rest (neither team has played since 4/3) will favor Phoenix.
The Coyotes are a profitable 15-9 (+10.6) the last 24 times that they played with three or more day’s rest in between games. During the same stretch, the Preds are a money-burning 5-14 (-8) when they have done so. Consider Phoenix
Washington comes into this game very tired after running with the Golden State Warriors last night in a 112-94 victory. Look for the Wizards to come out flat and for Orlando to hold them to a small number. Washington has scored 99 or less points in 19 of their last 21 games overall. They’ve also held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 99 or less points, so though they are struggling offensively, their defensive effort has certainly been there night in and night out. I cannot see the Magic putting up more than 100 tonight, and I don’t see Washington surpassing 90.
This play also falls under a system that is 77-33 (70%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) – well rested team – playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games. Bet the UNDER.
The Raptors are expected to be without Chris Bosh tonight after he suffered facial fractures in last nights game with the Cavs. Not having Bosh on the court to contend with Boston’s solid front line of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins puts the Raptors at a disadvantage. Boston was not at all happy about the way it played on the defensive end in last night’s loss to the Knicks so I would be surprised if it doesn’t play much better defense tonight. If the Celtics do so, especially with the Raptors minus their leading scorer, they should come out on top. Boston has won 7 straight and 11 of the last 12 in this series, and I expect its dominance to continue this evening.
Aaron Cook gets the start for the Rockies and he has performed very well against Milwaukee. Last year in two starts he allowed a single run and held the Brewers to a .216 batting average. In his last five starts against Milwaukee the Brewers never managed more than four runs in any game.
Doug Davis looks to be resurrected in Milwaukee this year but he hasn’t had much success against Colorado. In his career some of the key Rockies players have hit him extremely well. For example, Tulowitzki has a .353 average, Stewart .375 and Helton .462. Even Fowler who isn’t known for his power has hit two home runs against Davis in only five career at bats. Last year while pitching for Arizona Davis faced 51 Rockies hitters with 14 of them crossing the plate.
Colorado has won 6 of 9 games in Milwaukee even after a 7-5 defeat yesterday. Look for the Rockies to bounce back with a victory this afternoon.
Below are free NBA Picks and basketball predictions for April 7th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free NBA basketball picks on a daily basis or premium picks from our NBA basketball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Free NBA Pick: Denver vs. Oklahoma City Under 210 (Jim Feist)
Denver’s funk the last month has been with the offense because of injuries, going under 100 points in 8 of the last 10 games. That explains an 8-2 run under the total, plus a 10-4 run under the total the last 14 games. They take on an Oklahoma City team that is 10th in the NBA in points allowed, and sixth in field goal shooting defense. Those are the main reasons for the Thunder turnaround. Playing their third game in four nights and the second of a back to back spot, don’t look for the home team to play uptempo. Play the Nuggets/Thunder Under the total.
Free NBA Pick: Utah Jazz -5.5 (Tom Freese)
Houston is just playing out the string as they have had a difficult season. Aaron Brooks scores 19.6 points a game. Forward Luis Scola scores 16.1 points a game. Trevor Ariza scores 14.7 points a game. The Rockets score 101.9 points a game and they allow 102.5 points a game. Houston is 5-17 ATS when playing with no rest and they are 5-18 ATS their last 23 home games. Utah has the second best record in the Western Conference. They take on a Houston team that has nothing to play for. The Jazz are led by Carlos Boozer and his 19.7 points and 11.3 rebounds a game. Point Guard Deron Williams scores 18.7 points and dishes out 10.6 assists a game. The Jazz score 104.5 points a game and they allow 98.7 points a game. Utah is 12-3-1 ATS with no rest and they are 33-16-3 ATS their last 52 games overall. PLAY ON UTAH -