Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Free Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120)
Tue May 19th 2009 8:15p – MLB betting odds
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The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are two teams heading in opposite directions, and we look for that to continue tonight in St. Louis.

The Cubs lost 6-5 to the Houston Astros Sunday, but that snapped a five game winning streak, and we look for them to start a new streak tonight. Their starter Ted Lilly is off to a fine start, as he is 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and five Quality Starts in his last six outings. He also has six Quality Starts in his last seven appearances vs. the Cardinals the last two seasons, and he should take advantage of a Cardinal lineup batting .184 vs. lefties the last 10 games.

St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro comes in off of a couple of rocky outings, especially his last vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates as he allowed five earned on 11 hits in six innings. He did toss a Quality Start in his only outing vs. the Cubs last year, but he had a lot more offensive support then and his bullpen still managed to blow that game for him. Now, he is pitching for a team struggling to score runs and that still has a weak pen.

Playing on the road actually serves to give us a manageable price on the Cubs in this spot.

MLB Free Pick: Cubs -120

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Free Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins
May 18th 2009 7:30P – NHL Playoffs Odds
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I won my play on the Detroit Red Wings yesterday. That was the most “expensive” (-175 when I released the play but closed at -210) guaranteed selection which I had released all season. Thankfully, the Wings dominated play, as I’m never particularly comfortable laying that level of “juice,” eventually winning by a score of 5-2.

The Penguins are also very expensive for today’s opener, even more so than the Wings were yesterday – although the line is coming down this time, rather than going up. While the Pens don’t quite qualify as one premium selections, I do believe that they’ll also find a way to come up with the victory. (Note that those who have followed my complimentary opinions know that we’ve done very well over the longterm with favorites in this range.)

Both teams have had roughly an equal amount of rest. The Hurricanes last played on 5/14. The Penguins closed off Washington a day earlier, on 5/13. That figures to work in Pittsburgh’s favor. The Pens were 6-3 (+2.6) this season, when playing with three or more day’s rest in between games. Conversely, the Canes were just 3-7 (-5) in that situation.

With this evening’s over/under line listed at 5.5, note that the Pens have gone a profitable 34-12 (+15.2) the past few seasons, when playing at home with a total of 5.5. During the same stretch, the Canes were just 20-26 when playing a road game with a total of 5.5.

Yes, the Canes won both 2009 meetings with the Pens. However, the Hawks had also won the last two regular season meetings with the Wings and we saw what happened to them. Note that the Pens have still won four of their last five home meetings with the Canes. Additionally, note that the Pens are a profitable 71-55 (+19) the past few seasons when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting.

The Pens were 4-1 in the Conference Finals last season, including a 4-2 win as -220 favorites in that series opener. I believe that they’ll prove to be the stronger team in this series. Having already seen the rival Wings (the team that beat them in the Finals last year) win their opener, look for the Pens to deliver a huge effort and for them to also start things off with a victory. Consider Pittsburgh.

As most know, Ben Burns has enjoyed REMARKABLE SUCCESS on the ice over the past decade. He DID IT AGAIN this season & is currently enjoying an AWESOME 35-14 RUN, dating back to March. That includes a 6-1 mark in May – four of those selections were totals. Today, he tips-off the Eastern Conf Finals with his #1 TOTAL OF THE WEEK. Don’t wait. Get down now!

Free MLB Pick: OVER 9.5 Minnesota/New York Yankees:
Man, what an exciting series in the Bronx this weekend as the Yankees have rallied for three walk off wins in a row and look for the sweep tonight against the Twins. The Twins will look to end this slide of heartbreaking losses with lefty Glen Perkins, who has really struggled of late. Perkins started the year well, but is 0-1 with a 7.25 ERA in his last 4 outings. Pitching in this hitters ballpark won’t do much to help his recent slide. New York sends veteran lefty Andy Pettitte to the mound, and he has been awful as well of late. Pettitte has allowed 14 runs in his last 17 2/3 innings on the mound. Offensively, Alex Rodriguez and Joe Mauer’s returns have made both of these teams much more dangerous. A Rod has three Homers since his return, and Mauer has 5. Expect a lot of runs tonight in Yankee Stadium.

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Free MLB Pick: LA Dodgers -140 over New York Mets:
Manny who? The Dodgers haven’t really missed a beat since the Manny Ramirez suspension and have now won 4 of 5 after rocking the Marlins in Florida this past weekend. They’ll return home tonight to host the Mets for the first of a three game series. The Dodgers have the majors best record at 26-13 and will send Randy Wolf to the mound tonight with a 2-1 record and a 2.77 ERA. Wolf has been terrific this year, and has allowed just one run in three straight starts. New York counters with Righty Tim Redding, making his season debut. Redding was 10-11 with a 4.95 ERA for Washington last year, and will look to stick in a Mets rotation that has been hit by injuries and ineffectiveness of it’s #4 and 5 starters. Redding is 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA in his career vs. Los Angeles. We like the Dodgers to continue their winning ways tonight in what could be an early NLCS preview.

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Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Free Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
Mon May 18th 2009 7:05p – MLB Odds
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Oakland’s struggles with its pitching staff have caused plenty of shuffling in the rotation. Today, RHP Sean Gallagher will take the hill for his second start of the young season. His numbers have never been anything to write home about, but the most startling stat about the 23-year old is that opposing batters are hitting .360 against him this season. In his only other start this year, Gallagher allowed a whopping ten hits over five innings, allowing three runs in Oakland’s 6-4 loss to Toronto on May 9th. Historically, he has been an awful pitcher away from home, as he is 0-7 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.85 WHIP for his career in 17 road appearances (11 starts). That doesn’t bode well for a team that just got finished allowing 34 runs in three days in Detroit.

RHP Jeff Niemann still isn’t getting much in the way of respect from the oddsmakers. He isn’t going to be pitching deep into games, as he hasn’t completed more than six innings of work once in his young career, but those innings that he is throwing are becoming more and more effective as the season wears on. He allowed two runs in five innings to get the ‘W’ in his last outing at Camden Yards, which exorcized the demons of allowing five runs before recording an out in his first start of the season there. The biggest bugaboo on Niemann has been his K/BB ratio, which is less than 1.00. This will be the big right-hander’s third start at home this season, but it will clearly be a much easier task than facing the White Sox and Red Sox.

History will tell you that Gallagher has been a total gas can, and that trend shouldn’t buck tonight. Since the Rays came back from behind 7-0 to beat the Indians on Friday night, everything seems to be kicking just right. Expect to see Tampa Bay’s winning streak stretch to four games tonight at the expense of the slumping A’s.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals u9.0 (105)
Mon May 18th 2009 8:15p – Baseball Odds
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Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals and Braden Looper of the Milwaukee Brewers are both coming off of back-to-back bad outings, but we look for both to return to their normal forms tonight, keeping this game Under.

Looper in particular should pitch well as he pitched for the Cardinals last season, and is thus very familiar with the strength and weaknesses of the St. Louis batters, giving him a bigger edge than usual for a pitcher facing a team for the first time. He had been in fine form prior to his last two clunkers, posting four Quality Starts in his first five outings this year, and we see no reason why he cannot regain that form here.

The year Lohse is having has virtually mirrored that of Looper. Lohse began the season by allowing two earned runs or less in four of his first five starts, including two scoreless outings, before suddenly getting roughed up by the Phillies and Reds in his last two starts. He has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts vs. Milwaukee, so this seems like a nice spot to get back on track.

Finally, the Cardinals are hitting just .227 as a team while averaging a paltry 3.40 runs over their last 10 games, so as long as Lohse continues his past success vs. the Brewers, this Under should be in good shape.

MLB Free Pick: Brewers, Cardinals Under 9 (+105)

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -13.0 (-110)
Sun May 17 ’09 3:30p – NBA Odds
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The Rockets kept their championship aspirations alive by playing very tough defense at home in Game 6; it isn’t every day you see the Lakers score a feeble 80 points. Houston held LA to an atrocious 35% shooting from the field, but gave up 15 offensive rebounds allowing the Lakers to stay close late in the game. Rockets G Aaron Brooks is having the series of his life averaging 18.3 PPG. He had another big game on Thursday going off for 26 points while grabbing three rebounds and dishing out four assists. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS their L/6 trips to the Staples Center, and they’re a woeful 2-10 ATS off a SU win as an underdog this season.

The Lakers didn’t expect to be on the ropes at the beginning of this series, but thanks to a lack of offense, that’s exactly where they find themselves in Game 7. Los Angeles averaged 106 PPG during the regular season, but has averaged just 99 points per game in this series. Lakers G Kobe Bryant has carried his team offensively averaging 29.6 PPG, which puts him at just under 30% of the Lakers entire scoring production. LA is 3-0 SU in this series when they puscore 100 points or more with two of those three contests being played at home. Los Angeles served up a 40-point woodshed beating in their Game 5 home match-up with the Rockets, and will look to protect its own house in this spot again tonight. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 meetings with the Rockets, and 14-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

History tells us that most teams respond when they’re on the road in an elimination game. However, this season has shown new trends with teams like the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers getting blown out of the water. Look for the Rockets lack of depth inside to cost them here today much like it did in Game 5, and for the Lakers to blow them out of the playoffs by covering another big ‘spread’ on their home floor.

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: May 17th 2009
Free Betting Pick: OVER 10 Washington/Philadelphia: MLB Odds
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Hopefully these two saved some offense for today’s game after yesterday’s high scoring doubleheader. Yesterday’s finals of 8-5 and 7-5 were EASY overs, and we like that trend to continue today. Chan Ho Park vs. Jordan Zimmermann looks like another over in the nations capital.
 
Park has improved his last few starts, although he’s only 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA so far this season. He’ll never be the pitcher he once was, but the Phillies should be pleased with his production, at least in his last few outings. Philadelphia’s offense remains one of the best in the game, as OF Raul Ibanez looks like one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, as he’s hitting .368 with 13 HR’s and 35 RBI’s.
 
The Nationals will send their highly touted rookie Jordan Zimmermann to the mound today. The youngster is 2-1 with a 5.90 ERA thus far, and has been rocked in his last two starts to a tune of 11 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. Zim will be a good one someday, perhaps sooner than later, but this is not the type of team that a young starter is going to shut down. Philadelphia can score in bunches, and will not hold back today.
 
Assuming the weather holds up, this looks like an easy OVER.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers: May 17th 2009
Free Betting Pick: UNDER 10.5 LA Angels/Texas – MLB Odds
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An intense American League West series comes to a close this afternoon in Arlington as the Angels battle the Rangers. Texas took yesterday’s affair after Angels starter John Lackey, making his season debut was ejected after throwing just two pitches. The first was behind Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler, and the second pitch hit him. Lackey was ejected though he insisted it wasn’t intentional.
 
Today’s matchup features a few red hot pitchers. Jered Weaver brings his 3-1, 2.45 ERA into todays matchup. Weaver has taken the reins as the top starter in the depleted Angels rotation. He is slowly becoming one of the top pitchers in the American League. Texas starter Scott Feldman is also red hot, having given up only 3 runs in his last 12 innings pitched. Texas’ offense is one of the best in the league, however, they tend to rest a few starters on Sunday’s given the heat in Texas during the summer months. Expect to see a less potent offense for the Rangers as a few guys should have the day off.
 
We really like the UNDER in this game as the line doesn’t seem to have adjusted to the pitchers recent success and the fact that some players should get a day off.
 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Free Pick: Colorado Rockies (-110)
Sun May 17th 2009 1:35p – MLB Odds
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Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies may have mediocre overall numbers, but he is returning to his normal great form lately and he gives the Rockies the edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon.

Jimenez may be 3-4 with a 4.72 ERA, but he has now recorded three consecutive Quality Starts, posting a 2.14 ERA with an excellent 0.95 WHIP over those starts. He is also a perfect two for two in Quality Starts vs. this Pirates team over the last two seasons, and both of those efforts came in the altitude of Colorado.

Now Zach Duke is 4-3 with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP for Pittsburgh, but he has been simply awful in his last three starts vs. the Rockies. He allowed 19 earned runs and 30 baserunners in just 16 innings over those three starts, with two of the outings coming here in Pittsburgh. Should Zach struggles against Colorado again, do not expect much help from a struggling Pirates bullpen that has posted a collective 5.08 ERA over the last 10 games.

Finally, the Pirates are still just 4-14 in their last 18 games even after winning here last night, so look for them to return to their losing ways here.

MLB Free Pick: Rockies -110

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Free MLB Picks: Kansas City -120 over Baltimore:
So far the O’s and Royals have split the first two games of this 4 game set, with the Royals winning last night 8-1 behind another brilliant effort by Zack Greinke. Kansas City will look to continue their momentum tonight with Righty Kyle Davies (2-1, 5.22). Davies pitched very well in his last start, going 6 innings and allowing 1 run in a no decision against the Angels. Lefty Rich Hill makes his American League debut tonight as he’ll come of the DL for the Orioles. Hill was a highly touted lefty with the Cubs and won 13 games in 2007 before suddenly losing his command last season. Chicago shipped him to the minors last May and gave up on this winter when they dealt him to Baltimore. The Orioles have struggled on the mound and at this point will take anything positive from anyone. Hopefully Hill can rebound and get his career back in gear. Baltimore’s high powered offense will once again be without one of it’s young stars. Adam Jones (.370, 8 HR, 26 RBI) tweaked a hamstring the other night and has missed the past two games. We like Kansas City to win tonight and continue the Orioles losing ways on the road.

Free MLB Picks: OVER 10 LA Dodgers/Florida:
Eric Milton returns to the majors after missing the entire 2008 season with an elbow injury. Last we saw Milton, he was one of the biggest free agent busts in history, going 16-30 in three seasons with the Cincinnati Reds. Milton has always been prone to the longball, twice giving up 40 or more home runs in a season. Offensively, the Dodgers are dealing with the Manny Ramirez suspension pretty well. Their high powered offense isn’t quite as high powered, but still very good. Florida sends big lefty Andrew Miller to the hill tonight. Miller has yet to cash in on the promise he showed as a prospect out of the University of North Carolina. Miller has struggled so far in 2009, pitching to an 0-1 record and a 6.94 ERA. This game has over written all over it. Milton will probably be on a pitch count as well, and Miller hasn’t shown the ability to pitch late into games yet in his career.

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