Penn State vs. Michigan
Free Pick: Michigan +4.5 -110 odds – point spreads
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I’ll fade Penn State in their first true road test of the season against a Michigan team that takes pride in whipping them. The Wolverines have won 9 of the last 10 meetings against the Nittany Lions before getting crushed 46-17 last year at State College. Michigan is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games. Michigan will be out for blood in this one and it will have the Big House behind it where the Wolverines are 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. The only test Penn State has had is Iowa at home and the Lions were dominated by double digits in that game. Michigan played that same Iowa team on the road to a 2-point game. In other words, Michigan should not be catching this many points at home. Penn St. is 0-6 ATS vs. very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Wolverines are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 while the Nittany Lions are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. I’ll take the points.

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