Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (series Pick) (-120 odds)
Fri October 15th 2009 8:05p
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The Los Angeles Dodgers surprised us by going through the great St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff so easily, and they are now our choice to advance to the World Series by defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS.

This is a rematch of the 2008 NLCS, when the Phillies advanced in five games, but there is a big difference between last year and this season. Remember that Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Joe Blanton were all pitching out of their minds last year, and Brad Lidge did not blow a save all year.

However, this Philadelphia staff is simply not that intimidating. Hamels had a very disappointing season, and he was the only Phillie to lose a game in the NLDS vs. the Colorado Rockies, and Lidge went from not blowing any saves to leading the Major Leagues in blown saves this season. Other than the newly acquired Cliff Lee, who is truly a stud, the rest of the Philadelphia staff does not really impress us.

As for the Dodgers, sure, their starters do not look as good as they did earlier in the year, but Clayton Kershaw has looked great since returning from his injury, Vicente Padilla has been a pleasant surprise and opening day starter Hiroki Kuroda should be back for this series. On top of that, the Dodgers’ excellent bullpen ERA of 3.18 was the best in the Major Leagues by a wide margin, as the San Francisco Giants finished well back in second at 3.50.

Remember that pitching means everything in a short series and the Dodgers appear to be better equipped at this time, unless Hamels suddenly rediscovers his 2008 form. Game 1 of this series this becomes more critical that usual, and if the Dodgers can prevail at home vs. Hamels, we will love our chances of cashing this ticket.

Dodgers in 6

MLB Free Pick: Dodgers -120 (NLCS Series)