GAME 7: SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS - 2008 NBA PLAYOFFS BETTING
Article Courtesy of Fairway Jay, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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We’ve cashed a pair of ‘under’ the total winners the last two playoff contests between these two teams, and tonight we’ll take a small position and ‘shoot’ for the ‘trifecta’ on the ‘under’ 182’ in the deciding game 7 between the Hornets and Spurs in New Orleans. Situationally, this total needs to be at least 184 to meet a strong game 7 profile between Class ‘A’ teams in a competitively lined game. We’ve seen the total dip down between two and five points from the previous two playoff contests in game 5 and 6, and based on Class ‘A’ teams and ‘total’ results between the LA Lakers and Utah Jazz falling within two points of the total in the final two playoffs contests, you must not only bet the best line but also feel the number is fair and falls in line with proven past profitable profiles. This one is close, but not quite there. I would still lean to ‘under’ the total knowing that the Spurs have struggled with their shooting and scoring at New Orleans, posting scores of just 82, 84 and 79 points with a team best 42.5% shooting in game 2 at New Orleans.

On the court, this should be quite a battle between the defending champion San Antonio Spurs and the upstart New Orleans Hornets. It will be interesting to see if most of the Hornets players can keep their composure and play loose with so much at stake, especially late in the contest. That’s another factor in playing ‘under’ the total, as the shots may not fall as easily and the shooters ‘stroke’ may not be as smooth. However, if there are too many whistles and fouls called then the scoring result will be higher than expected. The experienced Spurs players have battled in this environment and situation before, and that would seem to be a favorable advantage for this deciding game 7 facing Hornets players in this position for the first time. However, despite some lineup changes throughout the series by San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich, the defending NBA champs and experienced Spurs have not been able to adjust to the Hornets ‘sting’ at New Orleans Arena while failing to even come close to a win at the ‘Hornets Nest’.

Back to our situational systems and sets, Class ‘A’ home teams playing a Class ‘A’ opponent in a game 7 have been a very solid bet to not only win the game, but also cover the point spread. This has been a home-dominated series, with the home team winning three games each and every result and victory by double-digits. The Hornets have been just a 3 to 4.5–point home favorite in the three previous playoff games over the Spurs, and won each contest by at least 18 points. I’ve liked most everything I’ve seen out of the ‘swarming’ Hornets, and while I anticipate a closer contest, I expect the Hornets to be ready for the Spurs best shot. New Orleans is the preferred play of the night, as I anticipate the ‘buzz’ to continue at New Orleans Arena and the Hornets to advance to the Western Conference Finals…look out LA Lakers!