San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts u46.0 (-110)
Sun January 13 ’08 1:00p
As oftentimes happens in marquee playoff games like this one between the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers, the total seems a tad inflated due to the ability of the offenses, while the two excellent defenses are seemingly undervalued.

Everyone knows about the explosive potential of the Colts offense, especially with Peyton Manning’s favorite target Marvin Harrison expected to be back in the lineup. But remember that the Indianapolis defense was again one of the best in the NFL this season, allowing just 16.4 points and 279.7 total yards per game. The unit includes the Defensive Player of the Year in Bob Sanders, and his presence allows the secondary to use one-on-one coverage, freeing the front seven to concentrate on a way to contain LaDainian Tomlinson and the running game. If they are successful in that regard, we simply do not trust Philip Rivers to put up a lot of points at this stage in this environment.

Not the be outdone, the San Diego defense is allowing just 17.1 points per game, and the Chargers have allowed no more than 17 points in any of their last seven games, including their 17-6 triumph over the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round. Yes, the Colts offense is obviously a tougher assignment, but the Chargers have actually done fairly well against Manning & Co. because of their fine pass rush. The last time San Diego played in this stadium, they ended the Colts’ dreams of a perfect season by handing them their first loss after a 13-0 start in 2005. Some of the players may now be different, but the philosophy remains the same in that the best way to stop Manning is to apply constant pressure on him, and this Charger team is well-equipped to do that.

Naturally, we do not expect either of these offenses to be shut down the whole game. However, we do expect each defense to make enough stops to make this a much lower scoring battle than many people expect.

NFL Free Pick: Chargers, Colts Under 46

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