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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Prediction: April 18th 2013

April 18th, 2013

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Prediction: Milwaukee +123 odds (April 18th 2013)

After an embarrassing arrest on a drunk-driving charge earlier this week, there’s nothing Yovani Gallardo wants to do more than take the mound at Miller Park and redeem himself.

The combination of Gallardo’s slow start and Matt Cain being the opposing hurler has convinced the oddsmaker to open the Giants as solid road favorites. I don’t see it that way.

Gallardo is an ace. He’s off a terrible game against the Cardinals this past Saturday. That’s the one team, though, he really has trouble against. Gallardo is 4-2 with a 1.91 ERA in six starts against San Francisco since 2009. Gallardo is Milwaukee’s ace and one of the best pitchers in the National League. He has recorded four consecutive 200-strikeout seasons, ranking fourth in the majors last year with an average of 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

Gallardo is quality and I see him bouncing back strong here against a San Francisco lineup that won’t be starting Buster Posey and Marco Scutaro, both of whom are being given days off. Milwaukee is a great hitting team and is regaining its confidence and swagger by defeating San Francisco during the first two games of this series.

Cain is an elite pitcher, too, but his dominance comes more at home. Cain has struggled at hitter-friendly Miller Park with a 5.94 ERA in five starts. The Giants are 2-8 during Cain’s last 10 road starts when favored between $1.10 and $1.50. The Brewers are 37-15 (71%) in Gallardo’s last 52 home starts.

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