St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers o7.5 (-110) – Mon May 25 ’09 2:05p
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While this looks like a pitching duel on paper between Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals and Yovani Gallardo, a closer look reveals that that this posted total as actually quite low for this contest.

Sure, Gallardo is 4-2 with a nice 3.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. However, he was hit hard by the Houston Astros in his last start, and he did not pitch well in his only two career starts vs. the Cardinals. Gallardo has been tough on the rest of the league since his call-up two years ago, but in those two starts against St. Louis, he was toughed up for a total of 11 earned runs and 16 baserunners in only 10.2 innings.

Now Carpenter has allowed a grand total of seven hits in two scoreless outings this year, but he only went three innings before getting hurt in his first start and he went just five innings in his return start last Wednesday. Furthermore, the second start back from an injury is usually the toughest, as that is when a pitcher is most prone to muscle soreness.

Then again, if Gallardo gets his as hard today as he has in his first two starts vs. the Cardinals and in his last start vs. Houston on Wednesday, it would not take much slippage by Carpenter for this game to go Over.

MLB Free Pick: Cardinals, Brewers Over 7.5 (-110)

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