St. Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Free NFL Pick: St. Louis Rams +9.5 (-110 NFL odds)
Sun October 18th 2009 1:00p
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The Rams are certainly not a very good and are arguably the worst team in the NFL right now. But how can Jacksonville be laying close to double-digits after getting absolutely annihilated last week in Seattle? Some will argue that this is the perfect bounce back position but I think it is just the opposite. If anything, it gives the Rams more confidence as they have nothing to lose at this point and feel they can hang with a team that just got their doors busted in. St. Louis lost last week at home against the Vikings by 28 points but it actually outgained Minnesota by 23 yards as it racked up 400 yards of total offense. Turnovers were the difference as the Rams gave it up three times inside the 10-yard line while also giving up a 48-yard fumble return for a touchdown. St. Louis is getting outscored by an average of 22.4 ppg on the season as the offense has had trouble scoring and the defense has had just the opposite effect on the opposition. To the Rams credit they have played the 6th toughest schedule in the NFL as three of their five games have come against teams ranked within the top half of the league. As for the Jaguars, it looked as though they had turned their season around with back-to-back wins over Houston and Tennessee but they took a big step backward last Sunday. After combining for 68 points in those two victories, they were able to get nothing against the Seahawks while mustering only 199 yards of offense. The offense is ranked middle of the pack but it has been hit or miss and even though the Rams are allowing a ton of points, the defense is ranked 23rd in the league which is actually better than the Sunday opponent. Jacksonville is 30th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 380.6 ypg and 25.4 ppg which is 24th in the NFL. If there is a defense that can get a struggling offense going, this could be the one. Marc Bulger will be getting the start this week at quarterback for the Rams. He ended the game last week by going 7-7 for 88 yards and a touchdown and while that was against a defense that had letup, it is still a great confidence booster. Even adding more confidence is playing against a defense that was rung up for 41 points last week. The Jaguars are just 1-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons including going 0-6 ATS as a home favorite. The Rams fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 90-48 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983.Also, play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent since 1983. Both of these situations go all the way back to 1983 which makes them even more solid. Expect a closer than expected game in Jacksonville on Sunday. 3* St. Louis Rams

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